Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
White Sox -140
Johnny Cueto has turned back the clock this season, and it all started with an outing vs. the Royals on May 16. The right-hander’s 4.02 season-long FIP indicates regression from his 2.91 ERA is due, but instead, the right-hander’s FIP has actually crept down over the past month-plus. He’s also been tougher away from Chicago, posting a 2.00 ERA and 4.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in seven road starts this season.
The opposite can be said of Kris Bubic at home. Although he’s been better of late, the KC left-hander still has a 5.86 ERA at Kauffman this season. The Royals have still managed to go 5-5 in Bubic’s home starts this year, but he’s due for some regression from his recent form.
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Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases +100
He only has 24 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this month, but a .214 BABIP against righties at any point is absurd for Alvarez. In this case, it’s outrageous because he has a 71.4% hard-contact rate against righties this month and 71.4% of the balls he’s hit off them have been airborne. The trend has to end, and Glenn Otto is just the right-hander to help with that.
Alvarez is 3-for-7 with two doubles and three walks in his career against Otto. More importantly, Otto has given up a 40.7% ground-ball rate to the last 76 left-handed hitters he’s seen, which makes Avarez an appealing home run play at +285.
Astros -1.5 -140
The Rangers are a cool 5-11 in Otto starts, so that’s very promising for Houston. Although three of those wins have come on the road, Texas has still lost five of the right-hander’s road outings. Only three of those losses have been by two or more, but he’s facing a tough Astros lineup on Wednesday. Given Otto has done fairly well in his two starts against Houston this season (four earned runs in 10 1/3 innings), he’s due for some regression.
Justin Verlander, however, is not due for any regression. He continues to dominate, and Houston’s bats continue to back him. The Astros have won by two-plus runs in 13 of his 20 starts, covering in over 81% of his 2022 wins. At home, the Astros are 7-2 in Verlander starts and have won by two-plus runs in six of those nine Minute Maid outings.
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
Total over 12.5 runs -105
Twenty-one runs between these two teams on Tuesday, with Colorado providing 16 of them. Now these two lineups, which are known for hitting left-handed pitching very well, will both get to face a pair of lefties on Wednesday after a pair of righties opened this series.
The Cardinals rank among the top 10 in ISO, line-drive rate and fly-ball rate against lefties since mid-July. They’ll get a look at Kyle Freeland, who has a 26.3% line-drive rate, 39.4% fly-ball rate and 39.6% hard-contact rate across his last five starts at Coors.
The Rockies are first in hard-contact rate at home against left-handed pitching since mid-July and rank just outside the top 10 in line-drive rate. Jose Quintana had a good start to his Cardinals career, but he’s in for a doozy on Wednesday. Especially because he has a 34.9% fly-ball rate and 25.3% line-drive rate in his last five road starts.
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