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MLB Picks for August 10: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for August 10.

Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

White Sox -140

Johnny Cueto has turned back the clock this season, and it all started with an outing vs. the Royals on May 16. The right-hander’s 4.02 season-long FIP indicates regression from his 2.91 ERA is due, but instead, the right-hander’s FIP has actually crept down over the past month-plus. He’s also been tougher away from Chicago, posting a 2.00 ERA and 4.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in seven road starts this season.

The opposite can be said of Kris Bubic at home. Although he’s been better of late, the KC left-hander still has a 5.86 ERA at Kauffman this season. The Royals have still managed to go 5-5 in Bubic’s home starts this year, but he’s due for some regression from his recent form.

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Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases +100

He only has 24 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this month, but a .214 BABIP against righties at any point is absurd for Alvarez. In this case, it’s outrageous because he has a 71.4% hard-contact rate against righties this month and 71.4% of the balls he’s hit off them have been airborne. The trend has to end, and Glenn Otto is just the right-hander to help with that.

Alvarez is 3-for-7 with two doubles and three walks in his career against Otto. More importantly, Otto has given up a 40.7% ground-ball rate to the last 76 left-handed hitters he’s seen, which makes Avarez an appealing home run play at +285.

Astros -1.5 -140

The Rangers are a cool 5-11 in Otto starts, so that’s very promising for Houston. Although three of those wins have come on the road, Texas has still lost five of the right-hander’s road outings. Only three of those losses have been by two or more, but he’s facing a tough Astros lineup on Wednesday. Given Otto has done fairly well in his two starts against Houston this season (four earned runs in 10 1/3 innings), he’s due for some regression.

Justin Verlander, however, is not due for any regression. He continues to dominate, and Houston’s bats continue to back him. The Astros have won by two-plus runs in 13 of his 20 starts, covering in over 81% of his 2022 wins. At home, the Astros are 7-2 in Verlander starts and have won by two-plus runs in six of those nine Minute Maid outings.

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

Total over 12.5 runs -105

Twenty-one runs between these two teams on Tuesday, with Colorado providing 16 of them. Now these two lineups, which are known for hitting left-handed pitching very well, will both get to face a pair of lefties on Wednesday after a pair of righties opened this series.

The Cardinals rank among the top 10 in ISO, line-drive rate and fly-ball rate against lefties since mid-July. They’ll get a look at Kyle Freeland, who has a 26.3% line-drive rate, 39.4% fly-ball rate and 39.6% hard-contact rate across his last five starts at Coors.

The Rockies are first in hard-contact rate at home against left-handed pitching since mid-July and rank just outside the top 10 in line-drive rate. Jose Quintana had a good start to his Cardinals career, but he’s in for a doozy on Wednesday. Especially because he has a 34.9% fly-ball rate and 25.3% line-drive rate in his last five road starts.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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