NFL season is less than a month away, and it’s time to start putting out a handful of season-long player props. The menu is deep on DraftKings Sportsbook, giving us options on plenty of players at any position. As usual, unders are generally the safer side here with injuries so prominent in the NFL. I’ll get out an over or two later, but here’s an under in a crowded Buffalo backfield I have my eye on.
Almost all of my football futures will be posted in article form, but as always follow along on Twitter, as some will just be posted here — @julianedlow.
Devin Singletary Rushing Yards: UNDER 750.5 (-105)
Singletary has gone over this mark in two of his three seasons in the NFL thus far, but not by much, and with great health to this point. As a rookie, Singletary was featured the most of any year of his career, gaining 775 rushing yards in just 12 games (over 12.5 carries per game).
Since then, Singletary has played in all 33 regular season games for Buffalo, yet the Bills have invested multiple picks in the third-round or higher on the RB position — Zack Moss in 2020 and James Cook in 2022. Singletary ran for 687 yards in 2020, and then 870 in 2021. But from a workload standpoint, his role has decreased with Moss eating up an average of 104 carries for just over 400 yards, while playing exactly 13 games in each of his first two seasons in the NFL.
This number would seem fair for Singletary in 2022, had Buffalo not invested a second-round pick (No. 63 overall) on Cook. Dalvin’s younger brother averaged 6.5 yards per carry over his four years at Georgia, and brings some fresh legs into this elite offense (and at a position of need). Sure, Cook will be involved as a pass-catcher as well, but you don’t draft a RB this high if you don’t plan to give him a big role in the offense, including in the ground game.
Factor on top of all of this that Josh Allen is also going to steal some carries away from all of these backs, finishing with 763 rushing yards on 122 carries in 2021. In a crowded backfield that also includes the likes of Duke Johnson on the depth chart, it’s tough to see Singletary commanding the type of workload that gets him beyond 750 yards, even if he stays healthy again. But we all know how this position works ... any type of injury that were to cost Singletary a few games would almost certainly be enough to cash this under sweat-free.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
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