Football season is upon us, which means it’s time to start previewing some NFL odds from a DraftKings Sportsbook perspective. Below, I’ll break down the futures market for the four teams in the AFC East.
AFC Conference Odds: +275
AFC East Division Odds: -230
Team Win Total: 11.5
To Make Playoffs: -750
Week 1 Spread: -2.5 (at LAR)
MVP: Josh Allen (+650)
OPOY: Josh Allen (+1800)/Stefon Diggs (+4500)
DPOY: Von Miller (+3000)
OROY: James Cook (+1800)
DROY: Kaiir Elam (+2000)
COY: Sean McDermott (+2000)
After suffering a tough loss in the AFC Championship game in Kansas City in 2020, the Bills came back with vengeance in 2021. However, their season ended on the same field, this time in an overtime classic that Buffalo had essentially won. With an already loaded roster, the Bills made little moves to address their minimal needs, leaving them in great shape entering 2022. Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite, and one of the larger division favorites in the NFL.
I’ve passed on backing or fading Buffalo in the futures market, but there are a couple of ways I think we can play them. I like the Bills to catch the defending Super Bowl champs in a good spot in the opening Thursday night game in Los Angeles. I also feel that -230 to win the division is a fair parlay piece.
AFC Conference Odds: +2000
AFC East Division Odds: +450
To Make Playoffs: +140
Week 1 Spread: -2.5 (vs. NE)
COY: Mike McDaniel (+1600)
Miami is coming off a controversial offseason, and now employees a rookie head coach. Mike McDaniels comes with plenty of hype, but time will tell if he’s for real. But once you get past those red flags, there’s a lot to like about the talent on this team. It’ll be a make or break year for Tua Tagovailoa, who now has Tyreek Hill opposite Jaylen Waddle, along with massive upgrades to the offensive line. The majority of a very talented defense also returns for the Dolphins.
I do really like this team, but a difficult schedule with a rookie coach has me passing on backing their win total. That said, there are two ways I don’t mind backing Miami — both of which tie into fades of the Patriots. I played the Dolphins -2.5 in Week 1 (and wrote it up in my best bets article), and also think you can consider betting them at +165 to finish 2nd in the AFC East.
AFC Conference Odds: +2200
AFC East Division Odds: +500
Team Win Total: 8.5
To Make Playoffs: +160
Week 1 Spread: +2.5 (at MIA)
COY: Bill Belichick (+2000)
The Patriots almost had three different seasons in 2021. New England started just 2-4 before ripping off seven wins in a row in the middle of its season. Then the Pats took a step back, losing three of their last four before getting blown out by the Bills in the playoffs. Overall, it was enough to get the team to a 10-win season, but I don’t see another one of those hot stretches in the middle of the year happening again in 2022.
By all accounts, the offense has really struggled in training camp for the Pats. We know Belichick has a history of getting his teams to improve throughout the season, so I can’t bring myself to fade them for the full season, but I will go against them with the Dolphins in Week 1.
AFC Conference Odds: +7500
AFC East Division Odds: +2800
Team Win Total: 5.5
To Make Playoffs: +700
Week 1 Spread: +7 (vs. BAL)
OROY: Breece Hall (+850), Garrett Wilson (+1400)
DROY: Ahmad Gardner (+1000), Jermaine Johnson (+1200)
COY: Robert Saleh (+2800)
I think the Jets had a great draft, as you see by all the ROY contenders above. But a great draft usually means you’re coming off a dreadful season, as the Jets are once again. Zach Wilson suffered a meniscus tear in the preseason, making it even more difficult to be very optimistic about New York.
I lean under on the 5.5 win total at plus money, but it’s a pretty low number. If you’re open to laying some juice, it seems like we can pretty safely say this team should finish at the bottom of the AFC East — which you can bet for -190. While I’d like to back Baltimore in Week 1, the potential Joe Flacco revenge game does spook me. Maybe go with a teaser leg there.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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