Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Jose Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts +105
Berrios hasn’t hammered the over on this number throughout 2022, but getting this at plus-money when he’s logged at least five strikeouts in 13 of his 24 starts is very appealing.
The Red Sox also present an opponent that’s been striking out a lot against right-handed pitchers since the break. Their 24.5% strikeout rate since mid-July is the fifth-highest in all of baseball. That should provide more than enough help for Berrios, who has hit the over on this number in six of his last eight outings (4-for-6 since the break).
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Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases -110
Somehow, Alvarez only has one extra-base hit against right-handed pitching this month. That’s a trend that simply cannot maintain.
Houston’s big man has a 58.1% hard-contact rate against righties this month, so he’s not getting cheated. Even though teams are trying to adjust to Alvarez, he still has a 35.5% fly-ball rate against right-handers in August, which should play well against Dylan Bundy. The Minnesota right-hander has allowed lefty bats to register a 54.8% fly-ball rate this month.
Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Total under 7.5 runs -115
Zac Gallen and Brady Singer have been absolutely lights out since the break, which should set up for a pitchers’ duel in the desert on Wednesday.
KC’s right-hander has only given up nine runs (eight earned) over his last 38 1/3 innings. While his 2.54 FIP during that stretch indicates his 1.88 ERA won’t maintain, the former is still a dominant number.
Gallen has logged just 2/3 of an inning more than Singer since the break, and he’s been tougher on opposing hitters. Arizona’s right-hander has surrendered five runs (four earned) over his last 39 innings. Similar to Singer, Gallen’s 1.53 FIP indicates he’ll regress from his 0.92 ERA soon, but that FIP is still absurdly impressive.
Now, the under on Wednesday’s total is only 3-3 in Gallen’s starts since the break. That’s been the result of Arizona’s offense, not the bullpen scuffling behind him. While the Diamondbacks have been getting the job done of late, Singer’s form is more impressive. Plus, the under on Wednesday’s total is a cool 5-1 in the KC right-hander’s starts since the break.
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