Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Fellow DraftKings contributor Garion Thorne mentioned the absurdity of this prop on Wednesday’s edition of The Sweat, and he could not have been more right. It’s one thing to have this total, but I do not understand the price tag.
Although he’s only gone over this number in six of his 21 starts, all six of those outings have come in his last 12. Also, three of the times he’s gone under this number during this 12-outing stretch, Alcantara was throwing vs. the Mets.
The Reds are nothing like the Mets — in a lot of ways. The most important difference: Cincy strikes out a lot against right-handed pitching. Since July 1, the Reds have a 27.5% strikeout rate against right-handers. Only the Angles have a worse mark during that stretch.
Speaking of the Angels, Kaprielian is in a nice spot Wednesday. As discussed above, the Angels have the highest strikeout rate in all of baseball against right-handed pitching since July 1. During that span, they also have the highest ground-ball rate against righties while ranking among the bottom five in hard-contact rate.
As for Kaprielian’s form, he has gone over this number in six of his last 10 starts. Not only has he hit this number frequently of late, but Kaprielian has also logged at least 16 outs in three of his last four road starts.
Making his Friars debut, Soto is going to have much greater protection than he had in Washington. More importantly, he’s facing a right-hander who struggles mightily against left-handed bats. Even away from Coors, Chad Kuhl just simply can’t figure out lefties.
The last 46 left-handed hitters Kuhl has faced away from Colorado have combined for a 35.5% line-drive rate, as well as a 35.5% fly-ball rate. Furthermore, they have a 43.8% hard-contact rate against him during that span, which has helped lead to two home runs, three doubles and a triple.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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