We’re nearing the home stretch of the MLB regular season, and we have another massive slate on Tuesday. That includes 14 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later.
The Pick: Under 7.0 runs (-115)
This game features the second-lowest total on the slate, but I still think it’s a smidge too high. Both teams will turn to excellent starting pitchers who should be able to keep the scoring to a minimum.
The Yankees turn to Gerrit Cole, who will be looking for redemption vs. the Mariners. They touched him up for six runs in his last start, which the Mariners won 7-3.
Still, Cole has been outstanding for most of the year. He owns a 2.71 xFIP and a 2.76 SIERA, and he’s striking out 32.4% of opposing batters. He has been slightly worse on the road than at home this season, but Cole remains one of the best pitchers in the league.
On the other side, Luis Castillo will make his second start for the Mariners. His first start also came vs. the Yankees, who he limited to three earned runs over 6 2/3 innings. He also racked up eight strikeouts, giving him a 2.95 xFIP in that outing.
His matchup this time around should also be a bit easier. The Yankees have lost a bunch of key contributors of late, including Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Carpenter and Anthony Rizzo. There’s a chance Rizzo returns to the lineup Tuesday, but either way, this lineup is at far from full strength.
The Pick: Nationals ML (+170)
Are the Cubs really that much better than the Nationals? I know the Nats have the worst record in the league and recently traded away their two best players, but this still feels like a massive overreaction. Remember, the Cubs have also traded away a ton of talent recently, even if they did inexplicably keep Willson Contreras and Ian Happ at the trade deadline.
The Cubs will send Marcus Stroman to the mound on Tuesday, and while he was one of their biggest additions in the offseason, he’s had a disappointing year. He’s pitched to a 4.00 ERA and a 4.46 xERA across 74 1/3 innings.
He definitely gives the Cubs an edge at pitcher over Paolo Espino, but I don’t think the gap is massive. Espino has posted a 4.20 ERA and a 4.78 xERA in 70 2/3 innings, so his numbers are very comparable.
These are ultimately two pretty bad baseball teams, so I have no problem grabbing the Nats at a big plus-number.
The Pick: Rangers ML (+155)
What does Martin Perez have to do to get some respect? Perez has pitched to a sparkling 2.47 ERA this season, and he’s been at his best recently. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his past four starts, and he’s racked up 30 strikeouts over that time frame.
Perez will have his hands full Tuesday vs. the Astros, but he’s been up to the task vs. Houston so far this season. He held them to one earned run over seven innings in their first meeting, and he followed that up with a complete-game shutout in their second. I’m no mathematician, but I’m pretty sure that equals one run in 16 innings against one of the best offenses in baseball.
Meanwhile, Jose Urquidy has pitched to a 4.49 xERA and a 4.23 SIERA for the Astros. The Astros have the clear edge offensively, but Perez can close that gap on the mound. I’ll take my chances with the Rangers in this spot.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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