Major League Baseball is officially in the home stretch. Most teams have between 20 and 25 games left on their schedule, and there are eight games to choose from starting at 6:10 p.m. ET or later on Monday.
The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+180)
The Diamondbacks are massive home underdogs vs. the Dodgers on Monday, but they are garnering plenty of sharp support. They’ve received just 12% of the moneyline wagers, but they’ve accounted for 68% of the betting handle.
Divisional home dogs have also been massively profitable in this price range this season. Home underdogs between +150 and +200 have gone 35-43 in divisional matchups this season, good for a 20.7% return on investment.
Ryne Nelson make his second big-league start on Monday, and things couldn’t have been any better for him in his first. He pitched seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and his advanced metrics were just as impressive. The Dodgers obviously represent a significant step up in weight class, but Nelson has the potential to be a solid starter.
Tyler Anderson will get the start for the Dodgers, and while he’s had an excellent season, he’s undoubtedly been lucky. Opposing batters have managed just a .259 batting average on balls in play, and Anderson allows a lot of balls to be put in play. He’s started to show some signs of regression recently, pitching to a 4.51 xFIP in the second half.
The Pick: Pirates (+120)
The Pirates and Reds will square off in a battle of bad teams, but Pittsburgh has quietly played better recently. They won a game each in their series against the Mets and Cardinals, who are two of the best teams in the National League.
They’ll have the potential to keep things rolling against the Reds, who will start left-hander Mike Minor on Monday. He’s struggled mightily this season, pitching to a 5.70 ERA and a 5.75 FIP across 90 innings. He’s been even worse when pitching at home, with his ERA jumping up over six.
Bryse Wilson hasn’t been any better for the Pirates, but they’re another squad generating some sharp interest. They’ve racked up 53% of the betting dollars on just 22% of the bets.
The Pick: Mike Trout to homer (+300)
The big news with the Angels right now is Mike Trout’s chase for history. Trout got the day off on Sunday — his second since returning from the IL on August 19 — but he’s homered in six consecutive games. That’s good for the longest streak in Angels history, and he’s just two games away from tying the major league record of eight.
He’ll definitely have a chance to get on the board again Monday vs. Konnor Pilkington. He owns a 4.87 xERA for the year, and he allows plenty of hard contact. His hard-hit rate ranks in the 14th percentile, while his barrel rate ranks in the sixth percentile. Trout also feasts on right-handed pitching, owning a .362 ISO in that split, and 27 of his 34 homers have come against traditional pitchers this season.
It would honestly be pretty poetic for Trout to match the record in 2022. The Angels continue to get unparalleled performances from Trout and Shohei Ohtani, yet they will miss the playoffs for the eighth consecutive year. One day, people will look back and wonder how a team with two Hall of Famers could be so bad.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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