We have another big MLB Tuesday on tap. All 30 teams will be in action, and we have two doubleheaders, as well. That brings the total to 17 games, giving us plenty of opportunities to look for value.
The Pick: Brewers ML (+155)
The Cardinals have specialized in acquiring pitchers at the trade deadline and turning them into aces. Jordan Montgomery was this year’s acquisition, and he’s been virtually unhittable since arriving in St. Louis. He’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA across seven starts, and he’s helped propel the Cardinals to an eight-game lead in the NL Central.
While Montgomery has been excellent, I refuse to believe that a change of clothing has turned him into Pedro Martinez. He’s still the same pitcher he was with the Yankees, and he owns a 3.84 xERA for the year. He struggles to generate strikeouts, and opposing batters have posted just a .259 batting average on balls in play during his time with the Cardinals. Eventually, he’s going to regress to the mean.
The Brewers have been dreadful against left-handers this season, but this number is simply too high. The sharps seem to agree, with the Brewers grabbing 64% of the moneyline dollars on just 30% of the bets.
The Pick: Nationals ML (+135)
The Nationals have been one of the worst teams in baseball this season, but they have started to play better of late. Before getting swept on the road by the Phillies, they managed to win two of three vs. the Mets and two of four vs. the Cardinals. Overall, they’ve won seven of their past 14 games, and they’ve posted a +11 run differential during that stretch.
The Nationals will return home Tuesday to start a series vs. Baltimore. The Orioles have been a nice story this season, but they’re not nearly as good as the three teams they just played. The Mets, Cardinals and Phillies all have a run differential of at least +73 for the year, while the Orioles sit at just +1. They’ve come back to reality of late, winning just two of their past eight outings.
The Orioles will also have an underwhelming starter on the bump in Dean Kremer. He owns a respectable 3.23 ERA this season, but his 4.44 xERA is more than a full run higher. On the other side, Cory Abbott’s xERA (3.34) is nearly a full run lower than his actual mark (4.22).
Overall, this is the perfect spot to target the Nationals as home underdogs.
The Pick: Mike Trout Over 0.5 Home Runs (+205)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We hit on Trout to homer yesterday, and I’m going right back to the well on Tuesday. Trout has now homered in seven straight games, putting him one shy of the major league record. Ken Griffey Jr., Don Mattingly and Dale Long are the only players in baseball history to homer in eight straight games, and Trout could join that list on Tuesday.
Trout draws a favorable matchup in his chase for history. The Guardians will start Cody Morris, who is making just his third MLB start. He’s been hit hard in his first two outings, posting a 6.02 xERA. Trout has hit for plenty of power this season against right-handed pitchers, posting a .360 ISO in that split.
If there’s one thing you can take to the bank in baseball, it’s Trout and Shohei Ohtani doing special things for an Angels team that can’t win any games. It would be pretty fitting for Trout to tie or break this record in a year where the Angels might not win 70 games.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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