We have another big MLB Tuesday on tap. All 30 teams will be in action, and we have one doubleheader, as well. That brings the total to 16 games, giving us plenty of opportunities to look for value.
The Pick: Astros ML (+130)
The Astros came through for us Monday, and I’m going right back to the well on Tuesday. They’ll have an even tougher matchup against Shane McClanahan, who is in the AL Cy Young conversation. He’s pitched to a minuscule 2.13 ERA while striking out an average of 11.05 batters per nine innings. His advanced metrics support his dominance, including a 2.51 xERA.
However, the Astros’ offense is good enough to get to anyone. They’ve been particularly good against left-handed pitching, ranking third in wRC+ in that split. The Astros have been dominant against southpaws for a very long time, which is not surprising given the presence of lefty-killers like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel.
Additionally, the Astros will have a solid pitcher of their own on the mound. Christian Javier has quietly had a phenomenal season, and he compares favorably to McClanahan in a lot of metrics. His 2.87 ERA is slightly worse, but his 2.55 xERA and 11.83 K/9 are virtually identical. The Rays' offense isn’t quite as potent as the Astros, so I’m happy to grab them at plus-money for the second straight day.
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The Pick: Tigers ML (+160)
The Orioles have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. They were not expected to contend for the postseason, but rookie Adley Rutschman has propelled them to a 76-69 record.
However, they have started to come back to the pack a bit. They’ve played just .500 baseball in September, which is a more accurate reflection of their talent level. Their run differential sits at just +1 for the year, which suggests they’re approximately a .500 baseball team.
They have a strong matchup Tuesday vs. the Tigers, but the Tigers will have an interesting starter on the mound in Joey Wentz. He is considered a mid-tier prospect, but he’s pitched well at the big-league level. He was rocked for six runs over 2 2/3 innings in his debut, but he’s followed that up with just two total runs over his past three starts.
On the other side, the Orioles will turn to a mediocre starter in Austin Voth. He has had a bit of a resurgence this season, but he still owns just a 4.36 xERA for the year.
Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with the unknown Wentz instead of the known commodity in Voth.
The Pick: Mets ML (-120)
The Mets cruised to a comfortable victory against the Brewers and Corbin Burnes on Tuesday. It helps when you get six perfect innings from Max Scherzer, who was making his first start off the 15-day IL, but the Mets’ offense did their part, as well. They scored five runs off Burnes and chased him out of the game after just 5 2/3 innings.
That’s not ideal for the Brewers heading into a bullpen game. Aaron Ashby will start the game after missing a full month with an injury, and it’s unclear how deep he’ll be able to pitch into the game. He didn’t make any rehab appearances in the minors, and the team plans to use him as a reliever moving forward.
That should help their bullpen, but it’s not going to do them any favors on Tuesday. The Brewers have some quality relievers, but they still rank merely 17th in bullpen ERA. They’re going to have to get a bunch of innings vs. a quality Mets offense from a group of subpar middle relievers.
The Mets will turn to Carlos Carrasco, who has been remarkably consistent of late. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 straight starts, including one earned run or fewer in seven of them. Most of those outings have come against soft opponents, but it does include two outings vs. the Braves and one vs. the Padres. I have no problem backing him and the Mets’ offense as slight road favorites in this spot.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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