Another exciting TNF game here in Week 4 with the surprising Dolphins taking on the disappointing Bengals Let’s take a look at some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook that we can consider putting on our Week 4 card.
Personally I don’t have anything on this game yet besides the Bengals at -3, but wasn’t able to get it out as a play because of how quickly the line moved. But I’m still writing up Cincy as a play, and hoping either the line moves back, or to use them as a ML parlay piece. I’ll get a play out on Twitter as soon as I decide how I’ll be playing it.
CIN -4 (-110) — hoping for better number
This can be one of those head scratching spots for the public, when we have a 3-0 SU/ATS team in the Dolphins sitting as an underdog against a 1-2 SU/ATS team in the Bengals. Miami has impressive wins over the Patriots, Ravens and Bills. Cincy lost as roughly touchdown favorites against the Steelers and Cowboys before finally getting on the board against the lowly Jets.
So why are the Bengals favored here? Well, I absolutely love this spot for them, and also hate the spot for the Dolphins.
Yes, the Bengals got off to a bad start to the season, but sometimes you just need a confidence builder against the Jets to get going. Cincy lost to teams with really strong pass rushes, and that’s no what Miami brings — its six sacks are more than just seven other NFL teams so far this season.
I think the Bengals should be able to take the momentum from the Jets game and continue to produce on offense, especially against this Miami defense. The Dolphins are banged up at a handful of key positions, and this defense was on the field for well over two-thirds of the game against the Bills on Sunday.
Now Miami has to go on the road on a short week and play against a hungry team that’s looking to make up ground from their 0-2 start. Meanwhile, Miami’s 3-0 start might be a bit of a fluke. The Dolphins needed a historic fourth quarter comeback in Baltimore against a very banged up secondary to get that win. And then the Fins somehow won against the Bills despite only putting up a little over 40% of the yardage Buffalo did.
With Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle questionable, among other key pieces, this feels like the spot the Dolphins finally slow down. I’ll be backing the Bengals at home here, just a question of how.
I’ll probably just stick to taking a side in this game and leave it at that, but if you’re looking for a prop play, Chase should be in position for a big game. In his only home game so far, the reigning OROY went off for a 10-129-1 line on 16 targets.
While he totaled just 84 yards in the last two road games combined, Chase still saw 19 targets. I think his yardage was just strangely short these past two games, particularly the 29 yards on 10 targets this past Sunday.
As mentioned, Miami doesn’t have a great pass rush to get pressure on Joe Burrow, which should lead to time to throw Chase the ball. The Dolphins have allowed decent production to WR1 these past couple of games, giving up 4-108-1 to Rashod Bateman and 7-74-0 to Stefon Diggs. The projections for 4for4 Football have good value on Chase to go over in this game, posting him at 84.4 yards.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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