Here are my favorite player props for the Week 4 of the 2022 NFL regular season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Week 3 was the first time Williams managed to go over this number, but this week will be the first time the backfield is all his. Not only is D’Andre Swift out of the mix, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is also unavailable for the Lions.
Detroit has some playmakers, but Williams should be asked to take on a substantial workload whether or not the passing game clicks without their top WR and pass-catching back. He’s logged at least 11 carries each week, topping out at 20 in Week 4. Again, Swift cut into those touches each week, logging 15 in Week 1, then five and seven. Craig Reynolds will likely get some touches vs. Seattle, but Williams has forced Detroit to turn to him more and more to open 2022.
Opposing running backs have gone over this number in two of Seattle’s three games, with the lone exception being the season’s first MNF contest. If not for some Denver fumbles in that MNF affair, a running back would have a touchdown against the Seahawks each week. Williams’ anytime touchdown scorer prop is a strong option at -130. If you want to take that and get better value, you can pair that prop with Williams over 49.5 rushing yards via the Same Game Parlay function to bring the play to +110.
The weather is likely a factor in why this number is so low for Hurts vs. the Jaguars. Still, it’s very much a worthwhile risk with the damage Philly’s QB can do with his legs.
While he’s done more work through the air than on the ground, Hurts was able to open the season with 90 yards rushing — in a game where he only managed 243 yards through the air on 18-for-32 passing. As a result, he’s cruised past this number in all three games to start the season.
Now, only one quarterback has gotten past this number vs. the Jaguars to start the year. However, Justin Herbert was one yard away from getting over the mark in Week 3 despite dealing with his rib issue. Also, holding the non-rushing Matt Ryan under 200 yards passing like Jacksonville did in Week 3 isn’t the same accomplishment it was years ago.
Even in his disappointing opener vs. the Seahawks, Williams has continued to display he’s an efficient runner. The threat of Melvin Gordon getting extra looks always looms, but Williams is averaging 4.8 yards per carry in the early going after bottoming out at 3.87 per carry in Week 3. Plus, he’s logged 15 carries the last two weeks after opening the season with just seven.
Now, Denver’s last game was the first time Williams didn’t log at least 77 all-purpose yards. On top of being less efficient on the ground, he only logged two yards on three receptions. He was still targeted five times in the win, and he’s facing an opponent that’s allowed running backs to get work in as both rushers and pass-catchers.
Opposing running backs have been targeted 26 times in the passing game vs. Las Vegas and reeled in 21 catches. In the process, opposing backs have averaged 9.19 yards per catch while posting 4.01 yards per rushing attempt.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.