Tuesday is typically a big day for MLB betting, and this one is no exception. All 30 major league teams are in action, and each game starts at 6:35 p.m. ET or later.
The Pick: Twins ML (+165)
Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Twins and the Yankees has been postponed due to inclement weather.
The Yankees have managed to snap out of their recent skid, winning each of their past two contests. That said, the offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders. They’ve scored just seven runs in those two contests, two of which have come from Aaron Judge long balls. Judge continues to lead the league in virtually every offensive metric, and without his production, the Yankees might not be in first place in the AL East. The Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound on Tuesday, but Cole has been mortal this season. He owns a 3.28 ERA and a 3.06 xERA, and his 11.15 K/9 is his lowest mark since 2017. He’s also been slightly worse over the second half of the year, with his ERA dipping to 3.86. He’ll have his work cut out for him vs. the Twins, even without Byron Buxton. They rank fourth in wRC+ against right-handers this season. The Twins will also have an underrated starter on the mound in Joe Ryan. He owns a 3.88 ERA and a 3.76 xERA, so his numbers aren’t all that different than Cole’s. Ultimately, +165 feels like a strong price tag for the Twins given the Yankees' recent struggles.
The Pick: Nationals ML (+210)
The Cardinals have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently. They’ve gone 29-12 since the All-Star break, good for a .707 winning percentage. That’s allowed them to open up a 7.5-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central.
They’ll have Jose Quintana on the mound on Tuesday, and he’s pitched to a 3.38 ERA in six starts with the Cardinals. However, his advanced metrics suggest he’s been fortunate this season. His 4.23 xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual mark, and he’s striking out just 7.41 batters per nine innings.
Quintana also might be catching the Nationals at the wrong time. They’ve been a bad team all season, but you wouldn’t know that from their recent results. They’ve won three straight games — two against the Mets and one against the Cardinals — by a combined score of 20-2.
The Cardinals should be able to do some damage against Paolo Espino, but this number still feels too high.
The Pick: Marlins ML (+190)
We’re hunting for big upsets only on Tuesday’s card. The Marlins are another team that I think is priced incorrectly on this slate.
They’ll have Jesus Luzardo on the mound, and he was previously considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He has electric stuff, but his control can be problematic. He exploded onto the scene with a 1.50 ERA over 12 innings in 2019, but he has been unable to recapture that magic.
However, he’s shown massive signs of improvement in 2022. He’s posted a 3.44 ERA and a 3.04 xERA across 65 1/3 innings, and he’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. He’s yet to allow more than four earned runs in a start this season, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of 12 outings. If he continues to pitch like that, he’ll give the Marlins a chance to win every time he takes the bump.
The Marlins will have to deal with Aaron Nola for the Phillies, which is obviously a tough task. That said, Nola owns just a 9-11 record this season, so he’s been far from unbeatable. If the Marlins can scratch together a couple of runs, they have a chance to pull off the upset.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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