We’ve advanced another weekend into the NFL playoffs, meaning the board gets thinner and lines are sharper. But we still have a solid betting board on DraftKings Sportsbook to breakdown this weekend, when we’ll find out who is advancing to the Conference Championship Games.
I’ll write up each of the four games below, including what action I have on each game, along with some overall betting thoughts if they apply. If there’s a unit destination next to the play, it’s something I’m on. Other plays are leans/considerations, that I may add to my card on Twitter (@julianedlow).
Not a hot take here, but I’m pretty confident in the Chiefs to win this game at home. Given the steep moneyline price, they are more valuable to use as a teaser leg this week, getting through all the key numbers between 8.5 and 2.5.
Kansas City went 7-0 straight up as a home favorite this season, but did really struggle to cover bigger numbers. KC was just 2-4-1 ATS in those games, with an average margin of victory of 7.1 points. Conveniently enough, the push was against these Jaguars, winning 27-17 as 10-point favorites.
While Jacksonville has been a great story, this feels like the end of the road in a big game at Arrowhead Stadium. Patrick Mahomes is 8-2 in his career at home in the postseason, and the Chiefs have been particularly good in seasons that they’ve had a bye.
This will be the fourth time in five seasons that Mahomes and company have secured a bye in the playoffs, winning the previous three by 18 against the Colts, 20 against the Texans and then by just five over the Browns in a game Mahomes got hurt in. Then we also have the absurd trend that Andy Reid is 27-4 off a bye in his coaching career. Great spot for the Chiefs to start their attempt at a postseason run with some momentum.
For props, I’m locked in on McKinnon here, but still trying to figure out the best way to back him. His role in the passing game has been tremendous since midseason, but it’s even grown as the season has progressed.
McKinnon has gone well over this mark in three of the last four full games he’s playing, including totals of 52, 70 and 112 receiving yards (with no fewer than six targets in any of those contests). He also racked up a solid receiving line against the Jags in the regular season, finishing with six grabs for 56 yards on eight targets. Jacksonville allowed the second-most receiving yards to the RB position in the regular season.
McKinnon has also been on a tear when it comes to finding the end zone, scoring a touchdown in six straight games (eight total touchdowns during that span). Adding the KC victory to the play gets us solid plus-money there.
If we want to go into Same Game Parlay territory, I don’t mind combining these two plays (and bringing the receiving yardage down to 29.5) to get a +225 SGP payout.
6PT Teaser: KC -2.5/PHI -1.5 (-120) — 1.5-units
Let’s get the terrifying part of this teaser out of the way first — everyone betting the games this weekend is going to have this one in pocket. It’ll be an extremely public play. That said, not all public plays are losers, we need to sift through and find which ones we can trust or not, and I do ultimately think this is a winner.
I already broke down the Chiefs, so just focusing on the Eagles here. I love that the Giants showed out last week and are becoming a trendy play this weekend. If Jalen Hurts is healthy, this line is probably too short. But I’m staying away from laying over a touchdown here — we know all the trends with the Giants being 8-1 ATS on the road this season and Daniel Jones being 17-5 ATS as a road dog in his career.
Philly is the better team with both teams at their best, and we saw that in the 48-22 regular season victory the G-Men hosted. The Eagles have much more talent all over the field than Minnesota does, particularly speaking to the defense.
I don’t love that we haven’t seen an unleashed Hurts in about a month, but I have to assume he’s good to go for this game and they’ll let him use his legs like he did when he was the MVP favorite. Little too much respect for the Giants, while we seem to be forgetting how good Philly is at its best. Eagles were favored in all nine home games, finishing 6-3 ATS and 7-2 outright. I expect them to advance.
6PT Teaser: KC -2.5/CIN +11.5 (-120) — 1-unit
This game has touched 3.5, which feels like a more appropriate number to me, but Buffalo has been taking a lot of larger, respected wagers, which has really pushed this number out. It’s a weird game to handicap in my mind. We saw a brief preview between these two teams on that Monday night in Cincinnati, and the Bengals looked terrific. Of course, they have to go on the road here, but they handled a road like this last postseason with no issues.
Joe Burrow is 10-2 ATS as a dog of 3.5 or larger in his career, so historically it is a spot to trust Cincy. Buffalo was somewhat like the Chiefs, known for winning games at home, but did go just 3-5 ATS. The offensive line issues for the Bengals keep me from backing them on the spread (or even outright), but I can’t trust Buffalo to put anyone away by more than 10 right now, particularly Burrow and the Bengals. I’ll tease again in this spot.
SF -3.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
OVER 46 (-110) — 1-unit
Reverse line movement on the Cowboys here, as the number is coming down despite around a quarter of the tickets there. But the more I dig into this game, the more I like the Niners, as well as some points on the board.
Brock Purdy is going to hit rough patches at some point, and maybe this Dallas defensive front can create some road bumps along the way, but the Niners just do such a good job of setting him up for success. They have the defense, along with the short-game weapons to protect against letting too much pressure become an issue for the rookie QB.
The Niners are 9-1 outright at home this season, including 8-1 ATS as a home favorite. Dallas is 2-1 ATS as a road underdog, but the spot continues to get tougher for them. This will be the Cowboys fourth straight road game, and the MNF win in Tampa puts them on a short week. The Niners, who haven’t traveled since New Year’s Day, get an extra two days off following their Saturday win over Seattle.
Tampa just couldn’t find a way to run the ball or protect the pressure against the Cowboys. They weren’t a good team all season. Now Dallas faces a team that does both of those things really well. The Cowboys do rank in the bottom-third of the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 125. I expect San Francisco to take advantage.
As for the over, here are the point totals for the 49ers since Brock Purdy took over against Miami — 33, 35, 21 (short week on TNF in his first career road game), 37, 37, 38, 41. This offense is scoring. Dallas is probably the toughest task yet, but even 28-31 points would be fine at this number. While I’m laying the 3.5 with SF, the Cowboys offense should produce enough to get us over here. The Niners are susceptible in the secondary to big plays in the passing game, which should allow them to find enough points here. A 35-28 final wouldn’t shock me at all.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.