Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for the Conference Championship Round of the NFL playoffs.
Find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar for updates.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Brock Purdy under 222.5 passing yards -120
This play was already appealing at 220.5, so the extra cushion is more than welcome.
There’s no question about the two defenses involved in this game. And while San Francisco’s offense presents more playmakers, Philadelphia’s defense is still in an advantageous spot when it comes to the quarterback they’re facing. Not that the Eagles need help — they’ve held 15 quarterbacks under this total. (That excludes the game Jordan Love entered for Aaron Rodgers vs. Philadelphia in Week 12, when the pair combined for 250 passing yards and Rodgers only logged 150.)
Purdy has gone over this number in three of his last five games, but he’s still gone under this number in five of the eight he’s played a full game (that includes his first full contest, which he didn’t start but logged 37 pass attempts). Also, the under is 4-3 on Purdy’s passing prop this season.
Jalen Hurts under 250.5 passing yards -115
As much as I like the Eagles in this one, I don’t fully trust Hurts’ arm in this one. He benefited from some rest vs. the Giants, and now he’s going up against a much tougher defense. The 49ers haven’t stymied opposing quarterbacks to the level Philly has, but they’ve only given up more than 250 passing yards in nine of their 19 games.
More importantly, Hurts doesn’t go over this number often. He’s gone under this number in 11 of his 16 starts, seven of his last nine and three of his last five. Also, the under on his passing prop is 9-7 this season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Travis Kelce over 76.5 receiving yards -120
No matter how good Patrick Mahomes feels going into this one, there’s still potential for him to aggravate his ankle. While that did put the under for his passing yards prop on my radar, that also led me toward his security blanket.
Kelce has gone over this number 10 times in 18 games, but he was unable to do so when these two teams last met. KC’s tight end wasn’t the only one who failed to eclipse this number vs. Cincy. Only five tight ends did so throughout the season.
However, Dawson Knox just logged 65 receiving yards on 5-for-7 receiving vs. the Bengals. Sure, that’s not over Kelce’s total, but Knox was playing in far worse conditions than KC will, and he isn’t on the same level as Kelce. Before Knox, Mark Andrews logged 73 yards on 5-for-10 receiving vs. Cincinnati with a backup QB. And before Andrews, Isaiah likely logged 103 yards on 8-for-13 receiving vs. the Bengals with a third-string quarterback.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.