Couldn’t land on a DraftKings Sportsbook play for Memphis at Minnesota, but we’ve got one for each of the other four NBA game scheduled for Friday.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Pacers +8.5 -110
Milwaukee won and covered the last time these two teams met, despite Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence. He’s probable in this one, so it looks like the Pacers will have their hands full to start the weekend.
This one opened at 7.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook before ballooning as high as nine points. The line has since dipped down to 8.5, and that may have to do with the sharps’ approach to this one. Indy is only getting 37% of the spread bets but 40% of the handle. Additionally, the Pacers are only getting seven percent of the moneyline bets but 16% of the handle.
And this is a setting in which Indy has thrived, going 4-2 ATS in divisional games and 11-5 ATS as home underdogs. Moreover, the Bucks are 5-5 ATS in divisional games and 5-5-2 as road favorites.
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic
Jimmy Butler under 20.5 points -105
This will mark the eighth time Butler has returned to the floor after sitting out a game. In four of the previous seven instances, he’s scored fewer than 21 points. In the five times DraftKings Sportsbook has posted a point prop for Butler in this setting, the under is 3-2.
Those two stats are largely in line with what Butler has done all season, too. The under is 19-13 on his points prop this season, and he’s gone under this number in 19 of the 34 games he’s played. Furthermore, when Miami is favored, the under on Butler’s points prop is 16-11.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
While this one-point spread turns this into a pick’em play, there’s been noteworthy movement surrounding this spread.
Cleveland opened as a one-point favorite, but Donovan Mitchell’s status is in question after he missed Thursday’s game. Given the type of injury he’s dealing with, I don’t even trust he’ll play his normal minutes if he’s given the green light.
That development is more than likely the primary reason OKC turned into the favorite, but it’s still odd given the market’s approach. While the Cavs are getting sharp money on the moneyline, they’re the public bet there and against the spread. However, OKC is the sharp spread bet as of writing (31% of bets and 36% of the handle). Still, the Cavs don’t need the extra help in most bettors’ eyes. This reverse line movement is fishy.
Couple some reverse line movement with the Cavaliers being 2-7 straight-up as road dogs and the Thunder being 6-3 straight-up as home favorites, and OKC becomes the play here.
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors
Raptors +5 -115
Another game with peculiar movement. Golden State opened as six-point favorites, but the spread dipped all the way down to 4.5 at one point. Sure, there are plenty of reasons that could be normal, but with the Warriors being the public play against the spread while receiving even heavier backing on the moneyline (93% of the bets), making it easier for Golden State to cover seems strange.
Couple that with the Raptors being 9-5 ATS as road dogs, and we can take the points Toronto is getting. On top of all that, the Warriors are 10-9-1 ATS as home favorites and 10-14-1 ATS in non-conference games.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.