The PGA TOUR continues in California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. For the second time in three weeks, we have an event that features a three-course rotation and 54-hole cut. Pebble Beach Golf Links is the host, and golfers will play each of the first three rounds at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula, before returning to Pebble Beach for the final round. All three courses are under 7,100 yards and feature poa greens. Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill are both par 71s, while Monterey Peninsula is a par 72.
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Andrew Putnam to Win (+2800)
Putnam has been on a really nice run for the better part of of the last six months, having posted five top-12 finishes across his past 14 starts, while going 11-for-11 in made cuts during that stretch as well. Only Matt Fitzpatrick ranks ahead of Putnam in SG: Total over the past 48 rounds, which shows just how dominant he’s been. He’s been the No. 2 putter in this field in that time behind only Maverick McNealy as well, while also sitting a very respectable 28th in SG: Approach.
His game is tailor-made for Pebble Beach, because if you can hit irons and play well both on and around the greens, you’re going to find yourself in contention. Putnam has played Pebble Beach five times now, but after missing the cut in his first two starts he’s three for three since, including a T6 finish last year.
There is not much value to be had anywhere this week, but the fact that Putnam has the sixth shortest odds to win on the week and is still close to 30/1 is something that caught my eye. His rolling numbers, recent form and course history all make him a nice selection at this price.
Taylor Moore to Win (+5500)
It was only one start, but Moore ranks fourth in this field in SG: Total per round at Pebble Beach. That start came last year where he finished T16. He’s a bit of a streaky player, but it feels like we are about to enter one of his hot streaks after a strong showing at the Farmers Insurance Open last week where he finished T11. Moore had a really strong final round, shooting a 71 in pretty tough conditions, while everyone was falling back. He gained 2.6 strokes on approach and 1.48 off-the-tee in the process, which is always a nice momentum builder entering the following week.
Long term, his rolling numbers rate out really well also, ranking 11th in the field in SG: Total across his past 48 rounds, including 15th in SG: Putting. Poa is also Moore’s best surface statistically, as he gains .26 more strokes per round on poa compared to other surfaces (Bent, Bermuda).
2022 was Moore’s first full season on the PGA TOUR and he had plenty of ups and downs, but did post nine top-25 finishes in 29 starts, before opening this season with the T11 last week. I believe he can and will win on the PGA TOUR, and there’s no reason it can’t be this week at a course(s) he’s already shown to like. The field this week is pretty grim, so I’ll gladly take 55/1 here.
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