Here we are, set for a National Championship Game between the reigning champ, and a Cinderella story that nobody expected to be here. The Georgia Bulldogs haven’t lost a game since last season’s SEC Championship to Alabama, and are massive double-digit favorites over a TCU team that has shocked the world this season.
Fortunately, if you’ve been reading my college football content, we now have a fantastic number on the Bulldogs, betting them at -125 to win it all before the CFP began. I’m planning to just ride that bet out, and don’t plan on hedging or middling it. But I do have one more play I want to add to my card for the Natty on DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 1 Georgia
UGA Team Total OVER 37.5 (-125) — 1-unit
I just don’t see how the TCU defense holds Georgia in check in this game. The Frogs got off to a tremendous start in their win over Michigan, but also got some fortunate bounces (like the touchdown that was reversed and led to a Wolverines fumble on the goal line). After scoring just six points in the first half of that game, Michigan still wound up dropping 45 points on TCU.
Now they’ll have to deal with a Georgia offense that always seems to put up points in big games. If you comb through the Bulldogs’ game log, their lower scoring games were spots that they could easily afford to take their foot off the gas against lesser competition. Here were some of their outputs in bigger games against quality competition — 49 vs. Oregon, 48 at South Carolina, 42 vs. Auburn, 42 vs. Florida, 45 at Mississippi State, 50 vs. LSU and 42 vs. Ohio State. The only big game that UGA didn’t put up a big number on offense was 27 against Tennessee.
I like the Bulldogs to pile it on and score 40-plus en route to the championship. While I’m yet to play any props in this game, here’s one from each side that jumps out to me.
Georgia RB Kenny McIntosh OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-105) — He ripped off 70 yards on just five carries against the Buckeyes. He should see a larger workload in this one, and TCU gave up over five yards per carry to Michigan’s starting RB.
TCU WR Quentin Johnson OVER 0.5 Receiving TD (+120) — Has been dinged up throughout the year, but Johnson is the favorite red zone target, and also has the potential to break a long one like he did against Michigan. Finished with 6-163-1 in the Fiesta Bowl. Georgia allowed two 100-yard receivers in the Peach Bowl, and they combined to haul in three touchdowns. Game script sets up slinging it from behind for the Frogs.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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