Super Bowl Sunday is upon us! Load up on your favorite beverages, get the food ready, and of course lock in your favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s breakdown my favorite bets for the big game below.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
KC Moneyline (+105) — 1.5-units
On paper it really looks like the Eagles are the side in this game. They have the better overall roster, and have better health at the moment. The public seems to be siding with Philly in this one, which makes sense. But much like playing the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, I do really like Patrick Mahomes in this contrarian role.
The line movement right after the Championship Games made some sense. The Eagles were coming off their second consecutive blowout victory in the postseason, and the Chiefs were limping to the finish line with players dropping left and right with injuries. But nobody in recent Super Bowl memory benefits more from these two weeks off than Kansas City.
I have zero concern about Mahomes’ ankle at this point, but several other key players were all up in the air for this game. It appears the large majority of them will be playing, and that will really help the Chiefs.
The Eagles haven’t played in a close game with Jalen Hurts on the field since before Christmas — a narrow win over the Bears in the game he was injured during. While a fantastic front running team, I’m just not sure what to expect from Philly in what should be a hard fought game that’s close entering the fourth quarter. Hurts has big game experience at Alabama and Oklahoma, so I don’t think he folds, but we just haven’t seen him deal with anything like this in the NFL at this stage.
From the Kansas City side, I feel like I do know what to expect. Playmaking from Mahomes, with the ability to make a comeback if needed. Plenty of experience on this roster, and a coaching edge to Andy Reid in my mind. Give me a contrarian Mahomes in an underdog role.
Kadarius Toney OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — 1-unit
This game should set up really nicely for Toney to factor into the offense, and his receiving prop has the potential to be much too low. Let’s keep the math simple here — Mahomes’ passing prop is approaching 300 yards, and Travis Kelce’s receiving prop is approaching 80 yards. Where are these other 220 yards going to come from?
If we look at the KC receivers, the highest ones are priced in the mid-thirties with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Juju Smith-Schuster. Then we have Toney priced in the mid-twenties. These prices come off season averages, rather than incorporating role in this specific game. At least one of those guys likely goes well over their prop.
We have a lot of reports coming out that Mahomes loves throwing to Toney. The Chiefs traded for him for a reason, and plan to unleash him in this game. Now, Toney has a brutal injury history, so he needs to stay healthy throughout the game. But with Mecole Hardman ruled out of this game, Toney is in fantastic position to play a large role in the passing game.
Opening Kickoff Touchback: NO (+140) — 0.5-units
Pure numbers play here. I played this one at about +160 last year and it moved to -125 by Sunday morning. We’ve heard from certain kickers that kicking the opening kick of the Super Bowl is like kicking a rock. The numbers back that up — only four of the last 32 Super Bowls have seen the opening kickoff be a touchback. Unfortunately for our bets last year, 2022 was one of those years. I won’t let that scare me off of backing a 28-4 trend at plus-money.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.