The PGA TOUR makes its second stop on the Florida swing this week, as Bay Hill Club & Lodge hosts the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The course measures as a 7,466-yard par 72 and features Bermuda grass greens. We have another loaded-field event on tap this week, with 44 of the world’s top 50 set to tee it up at Arnie’s Place.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Sungjae Im to Win (+3500)
Im let everyone down big time last week at The Honda Classic, finishing T42, despite being the odds-on favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook and the highest priced DFS option of the week. However, being that this is golf, we must have an incredibly short memory throughout the season, and Im is very much worth going right back to at 35/1 this week.
Im has historically done his best work in Florida as well, and his history at the API confirms that, as he’s made the cut in each of his four starts at Bay Hill, with a pair of third-place finishes and top-21 finishes alike. He’s also no stranger to performing well at big time events, having posted two top-10 finishes at The Masters, a solo third at the BMW Championship and a runner up at the TOUR Championship.
When on his game, Im has virtually no weaknesses, evidenced best by his rolling stats over his past 48 rounds. He ranks 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 13th in SG: Ball-Striking, 30th in SG: Short-Game (ARG + Putting) and eighth in SG: Total. When he gets rolling the man is a machine and can absolutely contend in the strongest of fields. All the contextual factors are in place for Im this week and he’s worth backing in the outright market.
Jordan Spieth to Win (+4000)
With the amount of elite level talent in the field this week, it’s hard to envision anyone longer than 50/1 actually taking this event down, let alone trying to predict who that might be. With that in mind, getting Spieth here at 40/1 is as close to value as you’re going to find. The three-time Major champion is not the player he once was, but we do know one thing, he can still get scorching hot with both his irons and his putter.
The latter has actually been quite a struggle for Spieth of late, as he ranks 79th in this field in SG: Putting over his past 12 rounds, and 101st over his past eight rounds. The good news, however, is that his iron play has been superb. Spieth has now gained at least 1.27 strokes on approach in each of his past six rounds dating back to the WMPO.
Putting can flip in a hurry and Spieth is arguably one of the 10 best putters of all time, so there’s zero doubt it will turn around sooner rather than later. The recent ball-striking run he’s been on is quite encouraging, and if it continues he will find himself in contention quite often moving forward. Spieth finished T4 at this event in his lone start back in 2021 and averaged 2.55 SG: Total per round that week, which ranks him first in this field among anyone with at least one start at Bay Hill.
He is definitely on the short list of possible contenders this week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is Lan1228) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.