I’m not crazy about the Monday NBA card, particularly with the trade deadline looming. As a fallout of the Kyrie Irving trade, we have shorthanded Brooklyn and Dallas teams on the card tonight. It seems like it’ll be an opportunistic week for NBA bettors if you can fire quickly off news, but tougher to come up with plays based on spots earlier in the day.
While the Monday card in college hoops is also short, we do have a pretty solid double-header on ESPN. I think both home teams set up in really nice spots here, so let’s breakdown some college basketball bets on DraftKings Sportsbook!
Duke at Miami
Miami -2.5 (-110) — 1-unit (good up to -3.5)
I put out a tweet with my Miami and Kansas plays at their opening numbers on Sunday, but listed numbers that I would still bet these up to in the article.
Let’s start with what we like about Miami — a ‘Canes squad that’s a perfect 12-0 at home this season. While they are just 6-6 ATS in those games, being priced as short favorites is where this team has thrived. Miami is 16-2 outright when favored, and 7-1 SU/6-1-1 ATS when priced as a favorite of -4.5 or shorter.
The Hurricanes also performed well in this matchup against Duke on the road, losing by just two points as six-point dogs. Duke protects its home court well, but playing on the road has been a completely different story. The Blue Devils are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in true road games this season, and the two wins came against teams in the basement of the ACC — at Georgia Tech and at Boston College (by just one point).
Duke’s four road losses came at Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest and NC State by a combined 46 points. Now the Blue Devils hit the road again just two days removed from an emotional rivalry win at home over North Carolina on Saturday night. Meanwhile, the ‘Canes continue to play solid basketball, and are coming off a road win at Clemson on Saturday as slight dogs. Expect Miami to avenge its two-point loss in Durham earlier this season.
Texas at Kansas
Kansas -3 (-110) — 1.5-units (good up to -4.5)
This game sets up a nearly perfect spot for Kansas. The Jayhawks were a no-show on Saturday afternoon at Iowa State, putting up just 53 points in the 15-point loss. It was Kansas’ fourth loss in six games, but three came in tough road atmospheres. One was also a home blowout loss to TCU that might’ve just been a wakeup call for this team.
The Jayhawks since responded with a thrashing of Kansas State in a revenge game at home. Now they’ll look to bounce-back at home against a Texas team in a rough spot. The Longhorns were on the road on Saturday at K-State, and found themselves in a 14-point deficit at halftime. They came back and ultimately won the game by three points, but now get a quick turnaround to play in a really tough road environment after really exerting a lot of second half energy to get the win on Saturday.
KU is 11-1 at home, but just 4-8 ATS, however it is rare that we can back the Jayhawks at this short of a number. In fact, this is the shortest home favorite they’ve been this season — previous was -5 versus Indiana, and the Jayhawks rolled to a 22-point victory.
Texas is a solid 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road, but has struggled as a road underdog. The Longhorns are 1-2 SU/ATS, with the win in a near pick’em game at West Virginia. Texas was a road dog of 4.5 or more at Iowa State and Tennessee, and dropped both of those games by double digits. I think this game is going to be similar to the type of spot Texas was in for those two losses.
Kansas 1H -2 (-110) — 1-unit (good up to -2.5)
I’m expecting the Jayhawks to get after it early in this one. As I mentioned, off the loss and coming back home sets up a terrific spot for this team. Once you factor in Texas in its second straight road game off the big second half comeback just two days ago, Kansas should clearly be the more desperate team early in this game. That comparable game that Texas played last Saturday and Tennessee saw the Horns trailing by 12 at the break.
Miami/Kansas Moneyline Parlay (+158) — 0.5-units
I’ll rarely make a parlay with such short favorites, but for just half a unit I’m playing it on Monday. I love the spot for both of these home teams to get the wins, and think both road teams are also in position to struggle. Combined record of Miami and Kansas at home is 23-1, and while the road teams are tougher competition than usual, I think they ultimately fall short.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.