You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but the Super Bowl is less than a week away. You also probably don’t need me to tell you that the DraftKings Sportsbook is bursting at the seams with prop bets for the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
In this article I’ll take you through a couple of my favorite wagers on the Eagles’ side of things. Nick Friar has you covered for the Chiefs.
Let’s dive into it.
Combined TD and FG Scoring Yardage
Eagles Over 101.5 Yards (+100)
There are several reasons to think we might see some long distance scoring plays in Sunday’s tilt. Let’s get the obvious out of the way off the top: State Farm Stadium is enclosed. That means a climate controlled environment with no wind or other elements, which should make kicking easier for both Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott. It should also be noted that Elliott was 5-for-6 on field goals of over 50 yards during the regular season.
Still, though kicking will likely be the reason this prop hits, we’re all here to see touchdowns, and there’s should be no shortage of explosive plays between these two teams. Kansas City and Philadelphia ranked first and second, respectively, in the NFL in passing plays of at least 25 yards, while the Eagles were tied for the fourth-most rushing plays of at least 10 yards, as well. Basically, Philadelphia can score from anywhere on the field at any time. It’s a trait that comes from the organization’s deep pool of skill-position assets in tandem with the otherworldly ability of Jalen Hurts. To wit, 13 of Hurts’ 22 passing touchdowns were 20-plus yards. 10 of the 22 were at least 29 yards. The Eagles are in scoring position even when they’re not in the red zone.
Total Fourth Down Conversions
Eagles Over 1.5 (+190)
To say there’s a lot of variance in fourth down conversions would be an understatement. Not only is there an element of chance in the conversion itself, but there’s so much randomness that goes into whether or not a team has to even make a fourth down decision in the first place. Time and score being the most notable factors.
However, I think it’s fair to say there’s less variance to worry about when it comes to Philadelphia, simply because it’s a situation where the team has thrived all season long. The Eagles sport the league’s fourth-highest fourth down conversion rate at 71.4%, trailing only the Rams, the Chiefs and the Steelers. Yet, Philadelphia differs from these three teams in sheer volume. Where Los Angeles, Kansas City and Pittsburgh all ranked in the lower-third of the NFL in overall fourth down attempts, the Eagles were hyper-efficient while sitting fourth in fourth down attempts per game (1.8).
This all came to a head in the NFC Championship, where Nick Sirianni went for it on fourth down twice in the first half with the game tied. Both were successful. Both led to touchdowns. Heck, one was at his own 34-yard line. Sirianni’s talked all season about his aggressiveness on fourth down and how he trusts Hurts and his teammates to make the right decisions. With everything on the line, I don’t expect Sirianni’s mantra to suddenly change.
A.J. Brown Over 71.5 Yards (-120)
Brown has been a non-factor in the Eagles’ first two playoff games, but that’s going to change on Sunday. First and foremost, this should almost certainly be a more competitive script, with the Chiefs’ elite offense surely set to score more than the seven points that Philadelphia’s surrendered to both New York and San Francisco. A closer contest on the scoreboard means an Eagles’ offense that’s more inclined to throw the football. That obviously means more volume for Brown, who finished top 10 in both targets (145) and receiving yards (1,496) during the regular season.
This is also a fantastic matchup for Brown. Kansas City has struggled defending the best wideout on opposing teams all season long, as it sits 31st in the league by DVOA against WR1s. The only secondary worse? The Bears. Brown had the opportunity to square-off with Chicago back in Week 15. The former second-round pick finished that game with a season-high 181 receiving yards on 16 targets. A similar type of performance could be in store for the Chiefs, which is why I also might look at Brown’s +1200 odds for Super Bowl MVP.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.