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NASCAR Picks: NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Best Bets, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta, which starts on March 19 at 3:00 p.m. ET.

It’s only the fifth race of the 2023 NASCAR season and the Cup Series is going pack racing again. Atlanta isn’t quite Daytona or Talladega, but the newly configured track is awfully close. With that being the case, it’s time to fire up some long shot super speedway NASCAR bets.

As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta, which gets underway Sunday, March 19 at 3:00 p.m. ET.

For DraftKings Sportsbook NASCAR Picks from the lower series, follow @Race4thePrize on Twitter.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

This isn’t your father’s Atlanta Motor Speedway. The beloved, worn-out surface lived past its expiration date. Rather than create another boring repaved cookie-cutter intermediate track, Bruton Smith decided to heavily bank the turns and create a 1.5 mile super speedway with pack racing and drafting. He pulled it off. Ryan Blaney described Atlanta as a survival track — another Daytona or Talladega. If long shots can do it at Daytona (Ricky Stenhouse Jr +4000 and Michael McDowell +10000), then they can do it in the ATL.

Race Winner — Ambetter Health 400

Ricky Stenhouse Jr +3000

A confident Ricky Stenhouse is dangerous in more ways than one. He’s a threat to win the race and he’s a threat to wreck everyone. We’ve seen this before. Stenhouse won two plate races in 2017. For the next several seasons, Stenhouse raced like a madman at the super speedways. He terrified and terrorized the field. Most drivers have learned to be passive and are willing to lose the battle to win the war. This seems like a safe and smart strategy, but the truth is that the safe and smart drivers win less than the aggressive, confident drivers. Stenhouse has three super-speedway wins. A lot of drivers do not have any.

Noah Gragson +5000

It’s become painfully clear that Gragson is going to struggle this season. At every level of racing, he’s driven the best equipment in the field. His Legacy Motor Club car is average at best. Gragson is fully aware of his situation. There will only be a couple weeks this year when he’ll be competitive. This weekend is circled on his calendar. This car can compete at a super speedway and Gragson has won two Xfinity Series plate-track races.

Check back later this week for additional NASCAR matchup bets and prop bets as they become available on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Race Winner — Ambetter Health 400

Justin Haley +5000

This is a repeat pick from Daytona. Spoiler Alert: As long as Haley has long-shot odds to win at a plate track, he’ll be in this article. Haley has a Cup Series win at Daytona and multiple Xfinity Series plate-track wins. Last year at Atlanta, he continued Kaulig Racing’s plate-track success by finishing seventh and 11th. Obviously those are not wins, but they’re not bad considering his odds.

Harrison Burton +10000

This is a deep cut but it’s not unprecedented. Long shots have won before. McDowell won the Daytona 500 at the same odds. A decade ago, Trevor Bayne was a similar long shot and won the Daytona 500 driving this car for the Wood Bros. Burton’s No. 21 Ford is allied with Team Penske. He has the machine to get to victory lane, he just needs to make the right moves and get a little bit of luck.

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Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.