NASCAR returns to an oval this Sunday. The short, flat track in Richmond will see the second official race in the new low-downforce short-track package. There is a chance for variance in the new racing package, but Richmond tends to be very chalky.
As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond, which gets underway Sunday, April 2 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
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Race Winner — Toyota Owners 400
Kevin Harvick +550
This is pretty straight forward. Harvick nearly won the spring race at Richmond in 2022. He did win the fall race at Richmond. In the first race in the low-downforce version of the Gen 7 car, Harvick was the fastest at the end of the Phoenix race and was cruising to a comfortable win before a late-race caution changed everything. Even during Harvick’s struggles in 2021, the SHR Fords were still very competitive at the short, flat tracks.
Kyle Larson +650
If not for bad luck, Kyle Larson would have no luck at all. Larson had the fastest car at Fontana (Auto Club), but a mechanical issue ruined his day. He had the fastest car at Las Vegas and Phoenix, but late-race restarts did not go his way. Last week, Bubba Wallace (+5000) wrecked into him. Between Fontana and Phoenix, Larson scored 52 fast lap points. The next closest driver is William Byron (+450) with 49. Denny Hamlin (+900) and Ross Chastain (+1800) come in third with just 16 fast lap points. The new low-downforce package will be implemented for the second time this season. In its official debut at Phoenix, Larson turned 316 of 316 laps inside the top 5 — the only driver to accomplish this feat.
Check back later this week for additional NASCAR matchup bets and prop bets as they become available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Race Winner — Toyota Owners 400
Christopher Bell +750
Richmond tends to be a green, lap turner. It favors the favorites. Bell was a stud at Richmond in the Xfinity Series and he nearly won the Cup Series race at Richmond last fall. He is one of the best short-track racers in the business and this is one of his best tracks. At Phoenix, Bell ran inside the top 5 for 72% of the race (third-most).
Brad Keselowski +2500
In 2020, Keselowski whipped the field at Richmond. He’s no longer with Penske and the car has changed, but BK knows how to get around this track. Both RFK Fords were strong at Richmond last season. Chris Buescher (+2800) finished third in the fall race and Keselowski had a top-10 driver rating in the spring race. At Phoenix several weeks ago, Keselowski ran 107 laps inside the top 5 (seventh-most) and 307 inside the top 10 (sixth-most). With a late-race caution, BK could turn a top-5 car into a race-winning car.
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