Phoenix Raceway may not be a short track, but it’s not Auto Club or Las Vegas. It’s definitely not Daytona. This track annually marks a significant change in the style of stock car racing, and this season, NASCAR is implementing a significant racing package change.
As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series United Rentals Work United 500 at Phoenix, which gets underway Sunday, March 12 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
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Short-track racing was dismal in 2019 due to the poor racing package. NASCAR quickly reacted and fixed the product. The 2022 Gen 7 racing package again created terrible short-track racing, so NASCAR adjusted. The 2023 Gen 7 car has been radically modified for the short tracks. This is a free and loose race car. No one knows what to expect. It could be business as usual at Phoenix, or it could be absolute chaos on Sunday.
Race Winner — United Rentals Work United 500
Ryan Blaney +800
At some point, the wins will start coming. Blaney is a great DFS pick because he leads laps and runs fast laps. He doesn’t collect checkered flags but wins are overrated in fantasy NASCAR. Wins are not overrated in motorsports betting. Wins are the only thing. And they’re not easy to come by as Blaney’s odds suggest. He’s the favorite to win at +800.
Blaney could have won the fall race but a bad pit stop held him back. He recovered and had a shot at the win but it was the championship. Blaney was deferential to his teammate Joey Logano’s championship run. Logano’s win was legit but Blaney did not push the issue. Wins are hard to come by. Blaney needs to start pushing the issue. No one leads more laps and has less to show for it. This is the perfect week to get back into the win column. Team Penske has been great at Phoenix over the last handful of seasons, and Blaney has been leading the charge. Blaney led 109 laps last fall and 143 laps in the spring 2022 race.
Ty Gibbs +6,000
Long shot bets don’t often hit in NASCAR but they were fairly profitable last season due to the volatile racing package in 2022. So far this season, the racing has been relatively tame. The teams and drivers seem to have their heads around the Gen 7 car at the intermediate tracks. That changes this week as NASCAR throws the teams a curve with a new aero package designed to produce better short-track racing. Not only do the teams have little experience with this brand new package, but the package is designed to be a handful.
The new package is highlighted by an almost nonexistent spoiler. The closest comparison is the Xfinity Series racing package. Who won the last Xfinity race at Phoenix? Ty Gibbs won the Xfinity Series Championship at Phoenix last November. He was very sporty in that race, and battled and beat experienced Phoenix drivers (Justin Allgaier and Noah Gragson). In four ARCA/K&N races at Phoenix, he has three wins, a runner-up finish and 339 laps led. Gibbs has the talent to compete and the car to be in the mix. If the race is green, he has no chance. If there’s chaos due to the unforgiving racing package, Gibbs could steal a win in a shootout run at the end.
Check back later this week for additional NASCAR matchup bets and prop bets as they become available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Group Winner — United Rentals Work United 500
Group C: Bubba Wallace +360
Not many people think of Bubba Wallace as a short-track racer. Until recently, not many people thought of Bubba Wallace as an intermediate-track driver. Truth be told, the public wasn’t very bullish on Bubba Wallace’s talents as a race car driver. That has all changed. Wallace struggled early in his career because he was young and racing inferior equipment. Now, he has experience and a fast Toyota. It’s clicking and he is rapidly developing, but the public and the book are reluctant to notice. These type of odds will not be around later in the season as the public’s reticence dissipates. In the last four short-flat track races of 2022, Wallace was a top-15 driver.
Group D: Austin Cindric +265
Team Penske has speed everywhere, but Blaney and Logano have been exceptional at the oddly-shaped one-mile track in the desert. Why can’t that speed be shared with their sophomore teammate? Austin Cindric (+5,000) doesn’t need to win but he can siphon off some speed from Penske and get a top-10 finish. He won the 2020 Xfinity Series Championship at Phoenix and was one corner away from winning the championship again in 2021. He did win the spring 2021 Phoenix race and led 119 of the 200 laps. Last fall, Cindric finished 11th at Phoenix in the Cup Series race and maintained an average running position of 11th.
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