MLB Picks for April 10: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Hey, Monday is a really nice slate of baseball happening after 6 p.m. ET. 28 of the 30 teams will be in action tonight and dammit, we’re going to place some bets. It’s also one of our favorite days of the season, which we’ll discuss in the first bet below.

Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate.

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Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels:

The Pick: Angels Team Total over 5.5 runs (-125)

Happy Patrick Corbin Day to all who celebrate. Many will say yesterday was a holiday but I’d argue today, and every fifth day, is just that for anyone who bets baseball. Betting against Corbin has been an activity that many have just become accustomed to doing when he starts and I’m no different. Taking them Angels on the moneyline is a bit steep and quite frankly. I’m not looking to back Jose Suarez as a -240 favorite. That’s too rich for my blood. Instead, I’m going after the Angels team total of 5.5 runs.

This will be the third start of the season for Corbin and as expected, it hasn’t gone well for the Nats Opening Day starter (does that make him the ace of the staff by default? It can’t, right?). Through 9.0 inning, Corbin has allowed 10 runs (eight earned) on 17 hits, including two home runs. He’s been as bad as advertised and quite frankly, it could have been worse. His 8.00 ERA is accompanied by a 9.62 xERA, meaning his defense has bailed him out already on some occasions. The Angels are full of right-handed bats against a lefty, as we just saw on Sunday against a southpaw. The Angels had seven of their nine starters hitting from the right side, which Corbin has a .392 wOBA, a 5.19 FIP and a 1.8 HR/9 against since last season. He’s not even averaging a strikeout per inning against them, sporting a 7.5 K/9 over that span. Six runs is a lot, but who better to target against than Corbin?

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies:

The Pick: Game Total over 11.5 runs -105

This is one of those games at Coors Field where the runs will be early and often. We have Steven Matz taking on German Marquez in what I expect to be a slugfest. Lefties at Coors Field have not fared well against this Rox club. Last season, this team slashed .305/.368/.517 with a .378 wOBA and a 117 wRC+ against lefties at home.

As for the Cardinals, they’ve been an odd team offensively thus far. They’re slashing .294/.365/.429, all of which are within the Top 10 through the league and yet are only 24th in runs with 36. They’re simply not knocking men home when they’re on base. A trip to Coors Field should absolutely get them back on track, which is why I’m still comfortable taking the over. Marquez had a .392 wOBA, a 1.96 HR/9 and a 5.00 FIP at Coors last season. Against a team that’s hitting the ball well but needs that extra step to knock them home, this is a great matchup for it.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Pick: Zac Gallen Over 6.5 strikeouts +100

At first glance, Gallen may not be someone you’re looking to back. He hasn’t gotten off to a good start and has already allowed nine runs on 13 hits through just 10.2 innings. However, his advanced stats already indicated he’s been a bit unlucky. It’s a small sample, so take it with a grain of salt, but his 7.59 ERA and 3.97 xERA are quite the difference. Matchups against the Dodgers and Padres didn’t help either, so tonight he get a softer matchup against the Brewers. For tonight, I’m focusing on his strikeouts and getting even money for him to go over 6.5

Gallen has the benefit of facing a very lefty heavy lineup tonight. The Brewers run out a lot of lefties when facing a right-handed pitcher. Last night against RHP Jake Woodford, the Brewers had five lefties in the lineup. This is a good thing for Gallen, who is extremely tough against them. Last year, Gallen had a .216 wOBA, a 2.94 FIP, and a 9.5 K/9 against them. In the small sample this year, he’s already faced 25 lefties and has allowed just 4 hits with six strikeouts. Gallen should get back on track tonight and put up his usual solid strikeout numbers.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.