Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates
Jose Urquidy hasn’t done well in April historically. If he were playing a tougher opponent, then I might bank on some regression Wednesday. But, he’s facing the Pirates. Yes, Pittsburgh has a slightly better record than Houston in the early going, but that only means both teams are due to regress — just in opposite directions.
Although they started off 4-6 after a three-series trip through the AL Central, the offense has started to pick things up. Entering Tuesday’s game, Houston had logged five-plus runs in four of the previous five. They also have a favorable matchup against Rich Hill. The seemingly ageless left-hander may actually be showing his age. After giving up three runs over five innings in his first start of the season, the White Sox smoked Hill for seven runs.
On top of that, he hasn’t been striking out many hitters. He’s got a 20% strikeout rate to start the season, which is about where he’s been the last few years. Hill hasn’t seen his strikeout rate reach 23% since 2019.
That should lead to a lot of batted-ball events from Houston hitters. While they’ve had limited opportunities, they’ve posted a .250 ISO against lefties in the early going. All the while, the Astros’ strikeout rate against left-handed pitching is just 12.2%. Regression may be in order in that department, but it’s not likely to come against Hill.
Taking Houston on the run line at plus-money is a justifiable play if this price gets too steep. But getting Houston at this tag makes the moneyline the better play.
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
Total over 11.5 -115
This play has a lot to do with Jose Urena being on the bump. It’s usually a struggle when he takes the mound. Combined with the Rocky Mountain air, St. Louis is in position to provide plenty of offense.
If this game was being played in St. Louis instead of Denver, the run line would probably be the play with Jack Flaherty chucking for the Cardinals. However, this is the first time he’s taking the mound at Coors. He’s managed the Rockies just fine in the past, but they’re a different beast at home.
Plus, Flaherty is due for some regression in an area that’s not ideal for this setting. It’s only been two starts, but he’s generated a lot of ground balls in the early going — much more than usual. Outside of his brief 2017, Flaherty’s highest ground-ball rate is 42.6%. Right now, it’s at 54.2%.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics
Orioles over 4.5 runs -140
Only one left-handed pitcher has been able to contain the Orioles to start the season. Nestor Cortes held Baltimore to two runs over 5 1/3 innings before the O’s welcomed Oakland to Camden Yards.
And with the A’s visiting, the Orioles have now faced three left-handed starting pitchers in a row. Ken Waldichuk will make it four on Wednesday. After Cortes, JP Sears only gave up three runs to the Orioles, but that was over five innings — not great. By the end of that outing, Baltimore had gone over the team total set for Wednesday’s matchup. On Tuesday, they didn’t need the full nine innings to surpass this mark. Baltimore smoked Kyle Muller for six runs over four innings.
As wild as Muller’s line is, that seems more like the norm for lefties vs. Baltimore to start 2023. The O’s scored seven off Chris Sale over three innings and seven against Andrew Heaney in just 2 2/3. That does not bode well for Waldichuk, who’s given up six-plus runs in each of his first two starts.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.