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MLB Picks for April 13: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB betting card.

There are five games on tonight’s MLB slate. That’s right. I’m ignoring anything that’s about to happen this afternoon. What do you want me to tell you? The Athletics are going to lose and the Rays are going to win? There’s your parlay, pal. You don’t need 1,000 words on it.

We’re 8-3 and +5.4 units for the season on article plays. Let’s keep building that bankroll.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees

Under 8.5 (-110)

I was complimentary of the Twins building up their depth this offseason, but even the best laid plans can go awry. Minnesota heads into New York already without Max Kepler (knee), Jorge Polanco (knee), Joey Gallo (side) and Kyle Farmer (jaw). Also nursing injuries are Carlos Correa, who hasn’t played since Saturday due to a back issue, and Byron Buxton, who had a nasty collision on the base paths in Wednesday’s win over the White Sox. Needless to say, it could be a relatively toothless lineup that has to go up against Jhony Brito this evening. The Yankees’ rookie has been good in his own right, too. Brito’s allowed just a single earned run over 10.0 innings, expertly suppressing opponent launch angle with a 56.0% ground ball rate.

On the other side, Joe Ryan has been just as impressive. Even with one of his rare mistakes in 2023 ending in a Yordan Alvarez grand slam, Ryan’s currently sporting a pristine 2.48 xERA to go along with an elite 34.8% strikeout rate. In short, the new split-change the RHP developed this offseason has been working wonders. Ryan and Brito should be able to keep this contest low-scoring through five or six innings, where each will then turn things over to a very successful collection of relievers. In terms of bullpen ERA, both New York and Minnesota are in possession of top five marks in baseball, so there’ll be some quality arms taking the mound in the Bronx on Thursday.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

Nick Martinez Over 2.5 Walks (+105)

Let’s get weird and do some Billy Beane cosplay. Tonight, we’re cheering for walks, people. Martinez has struggled with the strike zone to begin 2023, issuing seven free passes in just 11.2 innings of work. That includes five alone in his most recent outing against Atlanta. This isn’t a new problem, either. Martinez posted a below-average 9.2% walk rate in 2022, with that figure ballooning to 11.7% in the 10 regular season starts the right-hander made. Yikes.

Matchup is important to note with this prop, as well. The Brewers have gotten off to a strong start, and a huge reason for the team’s success has been its ability to get on base. Milwaukee’s .350 OBP is the fifth-highest mark in all of baseball, while it also sits third-lowest in swing rate (43.9%) and fourth-lowest in chase rate (29.3%). The Brewers can roll out a lineup with five left-handed bats — maybe a sixth if the switch-hitting Victor Caratini is behind the plate. That’s crucial, as Martinez walked a troubling 11.3% of the LHBs he faced last season.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.