We’ve got a trio of Game 2 matchups to analyze on Wednesday night, including some road teams looking to jump out to 2-0 leads. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
Gabe Vincent OVER 10.5 Points (-105) — 1.5-units
With Tyler Herro’s 20 points per game now absent from the lineup, Miami is going to need to find some additional perimeter scoring. If you comb through the stats, Jimmy Butler actually scores about three points fewer when Herro is out, which leaves a lot of extra production to go around.
The best candidate here is Vincent, and if we get alternate point props on this game (I’m assuming they are off the board due to Giannis Antetokounmpo), I’ll look to play an ALT over too.
When Herro played this season, Vincent averaged 8.1 points per game in just over 24 minutes. In the 12 games Vincent played without Herro this season, those numbers skyrocket to 15.8 points per game in over 33 minutes. Vincent was right on those numbers in Game 1, scoring 15 points in 33 minutes, and that was with Herro playing 19 minutes prior to breaking his hand.
It’s also worth noting that Kyle Lowry averaged five points per game more with Herro off the floor, and while he’ll play in this game, he played just 18 minutes in Game 1, and seems to be dinged up. This could also open up slightly more opportunities for Vincent. Overall, Vincent went over 10.5 points in nine of the 12 games he played without Herro this season — and we can call in 10 out of 13 if we want to include Game 1 on Sunday.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (Friday)
MIL/BOS ML Parlay (-109) — 1-unit
I’m taking the Giannis upgrade to questionable to mean that he’s playing. So in a 0-1 hole in the series, this is a must-win game for Milwaukee at home. Simple thought process here, but I think the Bucks even this 1-1 before they have to head down to Miami.
I’m using the Bucks to get out ahead of the Celtics on Friday night. We’ll avoid laying points here with Boston, who’s been dominant over the Hawks in the two games in Boston. The scene will shift in Atlanta, but I don’t think the C’s will have any trouble beating this team on the road. If we throw out the last game of the regular season (which starters sat, but the Celtics still won), Boston is now 4-0 over Atlanta, winning by an average margin of 14 points per game. Take that to the two games in Atlanta, and the Celtics won by 25 and nine points in the regular season, with both teams playing most of their guys. I already have a big -2.5 series spread wager on Boston, but I’ll keep backing the C’s here, who I feel have a good chance to sweep on Sunday.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.