We have another three-game betting slate in the NBA on Thursday. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets
SGP: Cam Johnson OVER 14.5 Points/OVER 2.5 Made Threes (+115) — 1-unit
Johnson’s point prop in this game is 16.5 with -125 juice to the over at the time of publishing. So I’m going to take the point prop down two points and give us a 40-cent swing in the juice here by adding the conditional prop that Johnson make at least three triples in this game.
Johnson has done this in both playoff games, hitting four threes with 18 points in Game 1, and then five threes with 28 points in Game 2. The matchup against Philly involves spacing the floor, and with the attention on Mikal Bridges, Johnson should continue to bomb away from downtown. So far in this series, over 50% of Johnson’s field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc — 17 of his 30 attempts (and he’s been red-hot, knocking down nine).
Obviously, we have some good correlation between the two props, and adding the triples helps us get plus money, rather than lay juice on over 16.5 points.
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
UNDER 240.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
If you’re a regular reader of the article, we’re riding Warriors ML tonight from the parlay placed on Tuesday at -109. I’m still fine with the play with Draymond Green sitting this one out, and will also be adding a play on the total. While this is the baseline of what the totals will be set at in this series, it’s high for this particular game.
The Warriors defense was dreadful on the road this season, and that carried into Sacramento. But at home, somewhat inexplicably, the Warriors defense was once again very good. Game 1 flew over the total, but outside of the Warriors being a great road over team, the Kings are also one of the best over teams at home. All of this changes with the scene shifting to San Francisco.
The Warriors went 23-16-2 to the under at home this season, while the KIngs were the NBA’s best under team on the road at 26-15. Draymond’s absence does take away some defense from the Warriors, but I also think the thinner rotation could lead to attempting to slow the pace some. I also expect a lot of Draymond’s minutes to go to defensive-minded player Gary Payton II.
After 249 points in Game 1, the teams landed on just 220 in Game 2, about 20 points under the total. If we go back to the regular season, these teams obliterated the over in a game in October, but fell well under 240.5 points in each of the other three matchups — average game total landed on 227.3. We’re getting deeper into this chess match, and I’d expect the pace to begin to slow, particularly out of Sacramento.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.