We have another full day of baseball scheduled for Sunday, with all 30 teams set to take the field. That includes 10 games in the 1:35 p.m. ET window, three games in the 4 p.m. ET window, and Sunday Night Baseball.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s slate.
Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers:
The Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+150)
Sunday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Brewers features a pair of excellent pitchers. The Brewers will turn to Corbin Burnes, who has established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past few seasons. He won the NL Cy Young award in 2021, and he’s posted an ERA of 2.94 or better in each of the past three years.
That said, Burnes hasn’t exactly looked like himself to start the year. His ERA sits at just 4.76 through his first four starts, while he’s managed just 6.75 strikeouts per nine innings. Burnes has historically averaged well over double-digit strikeouts per nine innings, so that’s a pretty alarming development. As a result, his SIERA has dipped to just 4.41.
On the other side, Brayan Bello is looking to establish himself as an MLB starter. He entered last season as the No. 38 prospect in baseball per FanGraphs, and he had a strong MLB debut. His traditional numbers were nothing to write home about, but he did post a 2.94 ERA.
Bello was rocked in his first start of 2023, with the Angels touching him up for five runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Still, he has a bright future ahead of him. With him on the ascent and Burnes potentially on the descent, the Red Sox make sense as moderate underdogs. The sharps seem to agree, with the Red Sox racking up 78% of the Moneyline dollars on just 34% of the bets.
St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners:
The Pick: Over 9.0 runs (-105)
The Cardinals and Mariners will square off in a matchup that could feature plenty of offense. For starters, both of these teams have solid offenses. They’re averaging more than 4.5 runs per game, and both rank in the top 13 for wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
More importantly, both of these starters are capable of giving up plenty of runs. Chris Flexen will get the ball for the Mariners, and he’s pitched to a dreadful 7.79 ERA through his first 17 1/3 innings. He’s walking nearly as many batters as he’s striking out, and while he’s been a bit unlucky, his 5.72 FIP is still terrible. Flexen was rocked for eight runs over 2 1/3 innings vs. the Cubs two games ago, and he followed that up with four earned runs in six innings vs. the Brewers.
On the other side, Jack Flaherty has been considerably lucky through his first four starts. He’s managed to post a 2.95 ERA, but opposing batters have struggled to a .220 BABIP. Flaherty has also walked a staggering 7.17 batters per nine innings, resulting in a 5.51 FIP and a 6.30 SIERA.
Ultimately, this feels like a game where both teams should be able to put some runs on the scoreboard.
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants:
The Pick: Mets Moneyline (-110)
The Mets won the first two games of their series vs. the Giants, but they dropped Saturday’s Game 3. However, they were facing the team’s ace Logan Webb, while the Giants’ right-handed hitters did serious damage against David Peterson.
The Mets will turn to Tylor Megill on Sunday Night Baseball, who has been a reliable pitcher this season. He’s posted a 3.00 ERA across his first four starts, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in three outings. His advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive, but the Giants’ offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs per game.
Megill gives the Mets a significant pitching advantage over Ross Stripling, who has been a disaster in his first year in San Francisco. He’s pitched to a 7.30 ERA and an 8.90 xERA, and opposing batters have managed a whopping 4.38 homers per nine innings.
Stripling has come out of the bullpen in each of his last three appearances, all of which lasted less than four innings. That means we should see a bunch of innings from the Giants’ bullpen, which doesn’t bode well vs. the Mets. They own the fourth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball, checking in at 5.56.
The Mets have gotten off to a sparkling 7-2 record on their west coast road trip. Expect them to put a cherry on top on Sunday.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.