The weekend is over, we’re all pissed about it. We need something to lift our spirits. So how about some bets for baseball tonight, which features 11 games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Angels Team Total over 5.5 runs -115
The Athletics are the only team in Major League Baseball that would make Angels starter Jose Suarez a -200 favorite. That is way too rich for my blood, especially when you consider Suarez has been downright awful himself with his putrid 9.26 ERA, a 6.36 xERA and a FIP of 6.15. But, I do want a piece of this game, so I’m rolling with the Angels team total, which sits at 5.5. Admittedly, I have to REALLY like the matchup to go over 5.5 runs because it is a big number to overcome. That said, here I am talking about going over this total.
The Halos will be facing Ken Waldichuk, who has been knocked around more than once already. Through four starts, he has a 7.65 ERA with a 5.78 xERA and a 7.92 FIP. Like most A’s starters, he’s been putting a ton of men on base (4.5 BB/9) and watching the ball leave the park (3.15 HR/9). Opposing hitters have been crushing his fastball, which he’s thrown 60% of the time. Averaging 92.8 mph, they’re hitting .298 against it with five of the seven home runs he’s allowed. Once Waldichuk is out of the game, he’ll turn it over to the worst bullpen in the league. Over the last week, the A’s bullpen has allowed the most runs (28), walks (15) and second-most hits (32). Oh, did I mention they have the lowest K% (13.8%) and the second- highest BB% (12.2%) over that span? Yikes.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Cardinals moneyline -120
The Cardinals are short favorites tonight and I want to take advantage of that. I think Giants starter Alex Cobb is being a bit overvalued here, as his stats are a bit deceiving. Sure, his 2.79 ERA looks nice but a 4.40 xERA is what caught my eye. When you see a difference like this, it tells you that Cobb has been a bit lucky and his defense behind him has bailed him out. The Cardinals offense continues to hum along as they continue to hit for a ton of power.
While Cobb has been great at keeping the ball on the ground, this is a lot to do with the Giants lack of success against lefties. On the year, this team owns a 68 wRC+ (28th), a .271 wOBA (28th) and a .123 ISO (22nd). Montgomery had a really bad start his last time out against the Diamondbacks, who are great against lefties. Aside from that, he pitched 18.1 innings prior to that allowing just five runs on 15 hits with 17 strikeouts. This Giants club is the complete opposite when it comes to hitting lefties. I’ll back the better offense and bullpen in this game.
Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Nathan Eovaldi over 6.5 strikeouts +105
Eovaldi has been quite unlucky in a Rangers uniform. His 5.40 ERA is accompanied by a 3.81 xERA and a 2.26 FIP. He deserves much better than what’s happened to him. That’s why I’m prepared to back his strikeout total at plus money. Seven strikeouts is a big number to reach, especially when you consider he’s only done it once in the four starts he’s made. However, you have to understand how much the Reds have been striking out lately. I mean, two days ago, they allowed 43-year-old Rich Hill to strikeout seven of them for the SECOND TIME THIS SEASON. Against the Reds, Hill has a 12.6 K/9. In the other starts, a 4.5 K/9.
Eovaldi, despite his numbers, is striking out over a batter an inning. The Reds enter this game owning a ridiculous 30.9% K% over the past week, the highest in the league. Overall, they have a 26.3% K% against righties, which is tied for the league lead. Amongst the eight players who have logged at least 50 plate appearances, only Jonathan India has a K% lower than 21%.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.