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We have a couple of crucial Game 4 battles in the NBA on Monday night, with both higher-seeded road teams looking to dig out of a 1-2 hole in their series. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks: Win Game 4/Series (-135) — 1.5-units
The Bucks have been keeping Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined since injuring his back in Game 1. It’s been nine days since he’s played, and now he’ll return for a pivotal Game 4 in Miami. Trailing 2-1, the No. 1 seed in the east cannot afford to go down 3-1 in the first round — which is likely why now is the time to unleash Giannis.
Milwaukee has ballooned to an eight-point favorite in this one, sitting at -360 on the moneyline as I type this. I like the Bucks to recover from one of the worst losses we’ve seen a No. 1 seed take in the first round of the NBA playoffs (by the scoreboard), and tie this 2-2. If we have a healthy Giannis in what’s now a best-of-three series with the Bucks gaining home court back, Milwaukee would be an enormous series favorite. You can use the Bucks as a ML parlay piece for Game 4 if you’d like, but this is the way I’ll choose to back them.
Gabe Vincent OVER 11.5 Points (+100) — 1-unit
I wrote up why I liked Vincent to go over 10.5 points back in Game 2, which he did with 16. The major factor here is that Vincent averages just 8.1 points when Tyler Herro plays, but plays about nine more minutes per game and doubles his scoring to close to 16 points per game when Herro is out (as he is now).
That trend played out in Game 2, but when I played it again in Game 3, we fell flat on our faces. Vincent scored just two points in 18 minutes, but I think it was a really strange game script. One of the things holding Vincent back was the emergence of Victor Oladipo over the past couple of games. Unfortunately, Oladipo went down with another season-ending leg injury. Then the game script with the blowout never really called for Vincent, who was having a poor game, to play the rest of his minutes.
With Oladipo now out of the picture, I think we get more of the Vincent we saw in Games 1 and 2 — 15 or so points in 30-plus minutes.
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
Series Spread: Golden State Warriors -1.5 Games (+120) — 2-units
The Kings are on a really exciting run, and if you asked me on Monday morning, my pick was Kings in seven games. The Warriors simply cannot win on the road.
But Sacramento got some dreadful news on Monday afternoon — De’Aaron Fox has a fracture on a finger on his left hand, and will likely be labeled as doubtful for Game 5. Fox was averaging about 32-7-6 through the first four games of this series, and was an absolute game-changer for the Kings.
While the Kings still have a solid squad without with, they need their superstar to have a shot here. At plus-money, I think it’s worth backing the Warriors to get the road win here, and then have a close-out shot as massive home favorites.
If Fox winds up playing, I will plan to buy off this some, so stay tuned. If Fox is out, I’ll likely look to play some player props in Game 5 (early idea would be Malik Monk overs).
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.