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Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Braves -150
Fading Sandy Alcantara generally isn’t a recipe for success, but this is definitely a spot to do so. He narrowly missed an IL stint, so it stands to reason Miami will be careful just how much they push him. That bicep problem could easily pop up on him again. Also, with the weather not looking great throughout the day, that gives the Marlins another reason to be careful with the reigning Cy Young Award winner. (Regarding the weather, while it could pose a problem for Alcantara, it doesn’t seem like it’ll impact whether or not this game gets played.)
All that, and we haven’t even touched on the fact Atlanta is mashing right-handed pitching. A .189 ISO thanks in large part to a 36% hard-contact rate.
The same cannot be said of Miami hitters. The Marlins have a .135 ISO against right-handed pitching thus far, and their 25.2% strikeout rate within the split is the seventh-highest in baseball. That bodes well for Bryce Elder, who has thrown up a series of goose eggs in three of his four outings while logging six-plus innings in each appearance.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Cardinals -115
St. Louis hasn’t been able to get over the hump in a Steven Matz start in the early going. Part of that’s been his own fault, having given up four-plus runs in three of his four outings without making it through the sixth inning. Still, he’s at least gotten into the sixth frame each time out. With the matchup he has on Wednesday, Matz is in position to take a step in the right direction and gain some momentum going into May.
The Giants do not handle left-handed pitching well. San Fran’s lineup has the second-highest strikeout rate (30.2%), third-worst walk rate (5.8%) and fifth-worst ISO (.112) against lefties. Those numbers don’t appear to be the result of bad luck, either. While the Giants haven’t registered a ton of soft contact against left-handed pitchers, they also haven’t registered much hard contact against them (28.9%).
Looking at the other side of this, the Cardinals have been middling against right-handed pitching. But, they might be due for some strong showings. On top of having one of the lowest strikeout rates against righties, the Cardinals have one of the highest hard-contact rates (34.7%) and line-drive rates (22.6%) within the split. Factor in their .147 BABIP against righties, and that paints a clear picture of what should come.
And while Anthony DeSclafani has experienced quite a bit of success in the early going, he’s been the beneficiary of some favorable matchups. The White Sox, Royals and Tigers all rank among the bottom 10 in ISO vs. right-handed pitching this season. The Mets are just outside that grouping, but it’s no secret they have a more fearsome lineup than the other teams he’s seen. And when DeSclafani ran into New York in his fourth start of 2023, it didn’t end well.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.