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We have a wild Wednesday betting card in the NBA, featuring four crucial Game 5 scenarios. Strangely, we have three higher seeds playing at home in Game 5 with their seasons on the line, down 3-1. Then we have a Warriors and Kings series in which the Warriors can’t win on the road, but will that change with De’Aaron Fox banged up?
As for the Golden State/Sacramento series, I posted a series play on Monday. I also think this could be a really good game for live wagering. Fox saying that he’s going to play with the injury in this game moved the market again. If he looks right, Kings and the over should be the sides. If Fox is clearly limited, I’d like the Warriors and the under in all likelihood.
Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE 1Q -2 (-110) — 1.25-units
You’ll sense a theme with these plays, but it’s pretty rare that we get a spot like this, and somehow we happen to have three of them in the NBA on Wednesday. The Cavs were my pick in this series, and they’ve been surprisingly dominated in all aspects of the game. The Knicks have gotten better backcourt play, and the bigs of New York have also owned the paint against talented Cavs bigs.
I don’t know if the Cavs have it in them to extend this series to a Game 6 or not. But I do know they have to make some adjustments and come out with some energy at home with their season on the line. I’d expect Donovan Mitchell in particular to have a strong start, and get Cleveland out to a strong start.
I’ve been doing well betting unders in this series, but I expect a change in pace in this game, and the total has just gotten too low. While I’m going to pass there, I may look to get involved in Julius Randle’s point prop. I’d look to his UNDER on 21.5 points, with Randle mostly struggling in the series in his return from a foot injury. He’s stayed under in three of the four games of the series (14.8 PPG), with the one over landing on just 22 points.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
MIL 1Q -4.5 (-110) — 1.25-units
Identical spot to the Cavs here, but with a team that has an even stronger history of getting off to strong starts at home. The Bucks are not only in a 3-1 hole as the 1-seed in the east, but they completely collapsed in Game 4 in Miami. I trust Giannis Antetokounmpo, who came out sharp and led the Bucks to a five-point lead after the first quarter in Game 4, to get the Bucks off to another strong start here. Ultimately, the spread on this game is probably too many, but it could be a flat start for the Heat after Jimmy Butler’s heroics on Monday as well. When the Bucks were off the Game 1 loss and at home in Game 2, they came out firing on all cylinders, winning the first quarter by seven points (and the half by 25). With the season on the line, I’m looking for a similar performance.
Totals have also been flying over in this series. So if I were to wind up adding a play, it’d be an over on a total that hasn’t seemed to adjust to how the series is going. I’ve held back, though, because if Miami has a flat game on offense, this would be it.
Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
MEM 1H -2.5 (-110) — 1.25-units
Another spot backing the desperate home team with its season on the line. Memphis was off a loss and at home in Game 2 of the series, and came out and grabbed a 15-point lead at halftime. The Grizzlies have been insanely good at home this season, and if we include the postseason, they are now 30-12-1 1H ATS. I’m pulling for my Lakers ticket on the series, but Memphis should come out and have a strong start in this spot.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.