Betting drafts are extremely unique markets, as its based off information. That can be a positive or a negative based off how you handle it. Putting your personal feelings aside is crucial, and knowing which reports and rumors to trust is everything. That said, I can’t remember a more difficult draft to bet in recent years.
Both the NFL and NBA Drafts have been good to me the last couple of years, but the uncertainty of this draft leaves the betting market in a weird place. But it’s Draft Day, so let’s look at some of the markets that feel like they still may hold some value on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Draft Position: Peter Skoronski OVER 10.5 (-140) — 1-unit
Skoronski had been in consideration as the top OL in this draft, but Paris Johnson Jr. has since become a massive favorites. Once considered around a coin flip to go in the top-10, it now seems like he has a much tougher path. He may not even be the second OL off the board, which would almost guarantee his slide out of the top-10.
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Draft Position: Quentin Johnson UNDER 26.5 (-250) — Wait for a move
I don’t want to be this at -250, but if you could get a better number on anything down to 23.5 I would love this bet. With the juice on it, we could see it move during the day. Johnson has been strongly linked to the Chargers, who are -200 favorites to use their first selection on a WR. If you want to bet Johnson to be selected by the Charger at +200, that is available. But I’ll hope for an under play at a better number. Johnson could go 21 to the Chargers, but the teams right after them could all be interested in WR — Ravens, Vikings, Jaguars, Giants. 25.5 would be key with the Giants picking at 25, but a team could also move up for Johnson.
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Position of Team’s First Drafted Player: Lions CB (-130) — 1-unit
Devon Witherspoon has been bet to a massive favorite to be the first CB off the board. He’s also been bet to -300 to be drafted in the top-six. The draft is shaping up for him to be Detroit’s guy — filling a position of need, especially after giving up on Jeff Okudah. I think Witherspoon goes No. 6 to Detroit, but this bet also protects if the Lions move around in the draft and still wind up with any CB with their first pick.
2nd QB Selected: Will Levis (+300) — 0.5-units
Levis was a massive stretch to be QB2 in this draft, and then was bet to the big favorite. On Draft Day, it’s CJ Stroud taking money, and I’m not buying it. I think teams are high on Levis, and he will wind up going in the top-four. At +300, this is worth some action.
Draft Matchup: Darnell Wright (+150) > Jaxson Smith-Njigba — 0.5-units
Smith-Njigba’s ceiling seems like No. 12 to Houston (who’s very active in the trade market) or No. 13 to Green Bay. If he doesn’t go there, he could slide a bit. Wright has the potential to go No. 9 to Chicago, so you can bet Wright at an even better price to go top-10. But I think this is the safer route, as you open up some picks after 10 that could still cash this bet. Wright is known for not allowing sacks in college, and is higher on boards that he’s priced.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.