MLB Picks for April 3: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Monday is usually a day when only a handful of baseball games are on the schedule. This week, we have a full slate of games with all 30 teams in action. Let’s go over some of my favorite plays for tonight.

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Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins:

The Pick: Twins Moneyline -120

The Twins head to Miami for their second series of the season. They’re one of three teams that have yet to lose a game, joining the Rangers and Rays. I like them to pick up another win tonight, as they’ll face Johnny Cueto in his first start as a Marlin. We didn’t see much of Cueto during Spring Training as he only made two starts. They didn’t exactly go well, as he only tossed 3 ²⁄₃ innings and allowed 11 runs on 11 hits, including two home runs.

At age 37, Cueto has seen his strikeout numbers continue to drop and ended last season with a 5.8 K/9 through 158.1 innings. His drop in strikeouts means more contact by opposing hitters, which saw him post a 38.4% fly ball rate, the highest of his career since 2010.

On the other side, we have Tyler Mahle, who was acquired by the Twins midseason last year. Mahle will go up against what looks like will be a free-swinging Marlins team. They’ve already logged 41 strikeouts in the first three games of the season, which is tied for the most in the league. It’s an extremely small sample, of course, but worth noting. Pitching in the roomy LoanDepot Park will also be to his benefit. Mahle has allowed 93 home runs in his career but nearly 70% of them came at home when he pitched at Great American Ballpark. Against a team that looks like they won’t boast a ton of power, this looks to be a good spot for Mahle to start his season.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Pick: Dodgers Team Total over 4.5 runs -125

The Dodgers bats should be cookin’ tonight against Rockies starter Ryan Feltner. I can’t envision many other teams where Feltner would be a starter, but why complain when you can essentially bet against him? Feltner ended last season tossing 97 ¹⁄₃ innings, posting a 5.83 ERA (xERA 4.91) with a 4.76 FIP, a 7.7 K/9, a 3.2 BB/9 and a 1.4 HR/9. It’s not as if his numbers as skewed because he pitched at Coors Field either, as his 5.73 ERA, .354 wOBA and 11 home runs on the road says enough.

It’s hard not to like the Dodgers to go over their team total for this game, which sits at 4.5 runs. While it’s fair to say the Dodgers' offseason was lackluster overall, they’ve already scored 20 runs through the first three games. That currently places them tied for sixth in the league. The power has been here early on as well, cracking seven home runs, which tops the league with two other teams. Give me a quick, offensive outburst from the Dodgers tonight.

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals:

The Pick: Game Total over 8.5 runs -105

I like the over in this game, as we have a fairly weak pitching matchup scheduled. Charlie Morton will take the hill for the Braves, while Jake Woodford goes for the Cardinals.

Morton was abysmal on the road last season, posting a 5.72 ERA, a 5.09 FIP and a .356 wOBA through 83 ¹⁄₃ innings. In fact, against this Cardinals team on the road last year, Morton allowed four runs on five hits, including two home runs through five innings. If anything, I think this Cardinals lineup is improved from them with the addition of top prospect Jordan Walker and catcher Willson Contreras. Morton has also struggled against lefties, which is something the Cardinals can really load up on. In the three games they’ve played, we’ve seen between four and five lefties in the starting lineup. Historically a starter that struggles early in the year, I think the Cardinals jump on Morton early in this game.

As for the Braves, they’ll face Woodford, who is in the rotation in place of the injured Adam Wainwright. Woodford has primarily been used in a relief role in the majors. Through three years, he’s made only 10 starts. As a reliever, Woodford seemed to be effective on the surface, but his underlying numbers tell a different story. Woodford post a solid 2.23 ERA but his xERA was at 4.00. This essentially tells us that Woodford benefited from his defense and his results could have looked much different otherwise. Against a powerhouse lineup like the Braves, I don’t have much faith in him today.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.