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MLB Picks for April 9: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s MLB betting card.

MLB: Spring Training-Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Easter Sunday! It’s a great sports day, with a full slate of basketball, baseball, and the final round of the Masters for your viewing pleasure. All 30 MLB teams will be in action, including an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s slate.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets:

The Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+125)

The Mets have pretty thoroughly dismantled the Marlins so far this season. They’ve already met six times, with the Mets taking five of them. That includes both games of the current series, so they’ll be looking to wrap up the sweep on Sunday.

However, they’ll hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco, and there are major question marks about Carrasco at the moment. He’s an older pitcher, and it seems as though the pitch clock is having a serious impact on him. He started his first outing with an average fastball velocity above 92 miles per hour, but it dipped under 90 towards the end of his start. One of his fastballs was clocked at just 88.7 miles per hour, which Brian Anderson deposited over the wall.

He finished his outing with five earned runs allowed in just four innings, and while the Marlins don’t possess the same caliber of offense as the Brewers, it’s still a major red flag.

On the other side, the Marlins will turn to Braxton Garrett, who was impressive as a rookie in 2022. He racked up a 3.58 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 17 starts, and he managed more than a strikeout per inning. The Mets also had their struggles at times with left-handers last season, and they were significantly worse in that split than they were against right-handers.

Add it all up, and I’ll take my chances with the Fish as small underdogs.

Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants:

The Pick: Royals Moneyline (+140)

The Royals are shaping up to be a popular target for the sharps on Sunday. They’ve received just 29% of the Moneyline bets, but those bets have accounted for 67% of the dollars. That’s a significant discrepancy, which suggests that the professional money is siding with KC.

They’re taking on Anthony DeSclafani, who was dreadful in limited time with the Giants last year. He made just five starts, but he struggled to a 6.63 ERA. He bounced back with a strong first start vs. the White Sox, but DeSclafani is a below-average pitcher with an expected ERA of around 4.50 by most major projection systems.

Kris Bubic will start for the Royals, and while he’s definitely worse than DeSclafani, the gap isn’t nearly as large as the current odds suggest. He was respectable in his first outing of the year, limiting a solid Blue Jays lineup to two runs over five innings. The Giants have gotten off to a roaring start offensively, averaging 5.5 runs per game, but I doubt they’ll be able to continue that pace. Ultimately, this seems like a nice opportunity to sell high on an overperforming lineup.

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves:

The Pick: Padres Moneyline (-105)

The Braves and Padres will wrap up a four-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. The Braves managed to win the first game of the series with a walk-off win, but the Padres have secured the past two contests.

The Braves are listed as slight favorites for the rubber match, but I give the Padres a pretty significant edge on the mound. They’ll hand the ball to Seth Lugo, who has spent the past few seasons as a top setup man. However, he has started in the past, and his return to the rotation started beautifully for the Padres. He pitched seven innings of one-run ball in his first outing, albeit against a subpar Rockies lineup.

Meanwhile, the Braves will be going with an unknown in Dylan Dodd. Dodd has made just 11 starts over Single-A, and he’s only a part of the Braves rotation due to multiple pitchers going down with injuries. Dodd has some upside and pitched well in his debut, but he’ll have to navigate a potent Padres lineup. Even with Fernando Tatis Jr. still suspended, the team is loaded with All-Star-caliber hitters at most positions.

I’ll take my chances with the proven commodity in Lugo in this matchup.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.