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The baseball season is officially over a month old. We enter the month of May with some amazing looking MLB standings. The Pirates are atop the NL Central, the D-backs are tied with the Dodgers, the Yankees and Red Sox are tied for fourth. What is this madness?
We’re going to go over a couple of bets I like for tonight that you can place on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 -110
It’s not a great pitching matchup tonight, as Blake Snell will go up against Luke Weaver. Neither pitcher has gotten off to a particularly hot start, especially when it comes to Snell. However, he’s going up against one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties. The Reds currently sport a .309 wOBA with an 84 wRC+ and a 24.1% K%. One of the biggest issues for Snell has been his command. When you have a BB/9 of 7.04 on the year, that usually means you’re walking way too many hitters. Luckily for him, the Reds aren’t a patient team either and have only a 7.9% BB% against lefties, which ranks them 19th in the league.
I think the Padres can take advantage of Luke Weaver, who has been hit hard in his two starts. Against the Pirates and Rangers, Weaver has allowed 10 runs on 12 hits, including five home runs, through just 11.2 innings. Going against this powerful Padres lineup could spell trouble for him early. If Snell can keep the free passes under control, I think the Padres can cruise to a victory by at least two runs tonight against the Reds.
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Astros Team Total over 4.5 runs -120
After some tough pitching matchups recently, the Astros could be catching a break tonight against the Giants. Ross Stripling, who has been used in both a starting and relief role, is taking the hill tonight. After a stellar season with the Blue Jays last year, Stripling currently has a 6.89 ERA with an xERA of 8.25 and a FIP of 7.72. This is through 15.2 innings, where he’s already allowed six home runs. For reference, Stripling allowed a total of 12 home runs last season through 134.1 innings. I can’t imagine Stripling goes deep into this game either, as through his five appearances, he’s gone no more than 5.0 innings. This would allow the Astros bats to go against one of the worst bullpens in the league.
Through 105.1 innings, the Giants bullpen has a putrid 6.15 ERA with a 5.06 FIP. Home runs have been a big issue for them as well with a 1.71 HR/9. The Astros offense needs a boost after a couple of tough series against the Phillies and Rays, so this could be that spot.
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Alex Verdugo over 1.5 total bases +100
Verdugo has been red hot at the plate lately, so grabbing him at even money to go over 1.5 bases is a play I’m on. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in five of his last 10 games and three of his last five. He’ll have the benefit of hitting at Fenway Park, where he’s done his best work on the season. Verdugo is slashing .354/.425/.554 at home, which includes six extra base hits.
He’ll go up against Jose Berrios, who historically has had poor numbers against lefties. Dating back to last season, Berrios has allowed a .366 wOBA with 19 doubles, two triples and 21 home runs. In a game that has the highest game total of the night, I’d expect Verdugo to see a minimum of five plate appearances, giving him ample opportunities to go over this number.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.