The Knicks and Warriors are in rare spots on Wednesday, facing elimination as the higher-seeded teams while playing at home in a Game 5. In most situations, these are considered bounce-back spots for the home team, but I’m going to trust the road team in one of these ones. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Any added plays will be posted to Twitter as I play them.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Miami Heat at New York Knicks
Heat +3.5 (-110) — 2-units
I’m still not completely sure how the Heat have been able to completely fix all of the regular season issues that landed them in the play-in tournament to become one of the most dominant teams in the postseason, but they have. They continue to be underpriced on a game-by-game basis, as well as the futures market. After dominating the Bucks, the Heat have covered all four games of this series to improve to 8-1 ATS (7-2 SU) this postseason.
The Game 2 loss was a game the Heat controlled much of the way, but ultimately couldn’t close. Similar to Wednesday’s game, it was a desperation spot for the Knicks at home. The crucial difference is that Jimmy Butler was sidelined with an ankle injury for that game.
After coasting to a couple of wins in Miami, it’s pretty clear that the Heat own this matchup. Julius Randle has been a negative on the floor for New York, and is just one of many matchups that plays into Miami’s favor — a long with the depth of the Heat. I like them to close the series in Game 5 (so may play some ML small), but I’ll take some points since they’re being offered up.
Gabe Vincent ALT Points 15+ (+210) — 0.8-units
Gabe Vincent ALT Points 20+ (+700) — 0.2-units
I’ve been playing plenty of Vincent props towards the end of the season and into the postseason. He’s extremely hit or miss, but when he hits, he generally goes well over his point prop.
Vincent’s point prop is 11.5 on this card, but he’s also reached at least 15 points in every game he’s gone over his point prop. Vincent has now notched 15 or more points in five of nine playoff games, including 20-plus in three of his last five outings now.
Known for his shooting, Vincent is coming off consecutive duds — scoring a combined eight points on 2-for-15 shooting. His minutes went down a bit in those games, some due to a blowout, and some due to Miami just sticking with the guys hitting shots. When Vincent does get off to good starts and is hitting his shots, they stick with him in the rotation. That’s evident by his three prior games — playing 33-41 minutes in each, while scoring 20-22 points with at least 12 attempts from downtown.
Once we get one of those monster games, these high plus-price tags will payoff. And now we’re getting a discount due to his poor performances the last two.
Win Eastern Conference: Heat (+330) — 1.5-units
Even if the Heat don’t close the series in Game 5, I give the Knicks close to no shot of actually winning the series. If we advance Miami to the Eastern Conference Finals, it’d be a matchup against Boston or Philadelphia.
For the purpose of my current futures, hopefully it’s the Celtics. And if that is indeed the case, consider this play a hedge on the bet I put out on them to win the east. If it winds up being the Sixers, Miami is the side that I’d want to be on for the series anyway. So I’ll just grab them now at a better price.
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Below is what I wrote in Tuesday’s article on the Lakers/Warriors game. I’ll be rooting for Warriors ML for parlay purposes, but if you missed linking them with something from Tuesday, I still like them as a leg if you have something else you’re interested in pairing them with. It’s likely a sport Golden State responds strong, so I don’t mind laying the points, but the best of the numbers is well behind us.
The Warriors are also in a strong bounce-back spot, returning home with their season on the line. The series had been following the zig-zag through three games, but despite a strong effort from the Dubs in Game 4, they just couldn’t close on the road.
That’s leaves them in an even stronger spot in Game 5, immediately being bet from 5.5 to 6.5-point favorites (and up to 7.5 now on game day). Look for the Warriors to be fully locked in, and playing at home to make a big difference for them. The Lakers were in this same spot against the Grizzlies, and got beat pretty good in a Game 5 in Memphis. Having their Game 6 in their back pocket, versus a Warriors mentality of needing this game to stay alive is going to be apparent at times during this game.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.