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NBA Best Bets: NBA Picks and Betting Trends on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 11

Julian Edlow gives his best NBA bets and betting trends on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Celtics and Suns will be playing with no margin for error in elimination Game 6’s on Thursday night, both sitting as short favorites to force a Game 7. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Any added plays will be posted to Twitter as I play them.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

Celtics ML (-140)

It’s Celtics or pass for me if I play this game, and my hesitation to pass is simply because I’m already invested in them in the futures market. Obviously, we’ll need this game to keep those alive.

The Celtics could’ve swept this series if a couple of James Harden triples missed, but both went in. They were the much better team through four games, and then came out and laid one of their worst duds of the season in the most inconvenient spot. Generally speaking, Boston responds in these spots — 6-1 off their last seven home playoff losses and 3-1 off double-digit losses this season (the only loss was by three in Miami while sitting three starters).

I don’t know what the mental issue is that this team is having when it comes to winning home playoff games, but whatever it is, they’ve been much better on the road — particularly shooting the ball.

Boston lacks toughness, and I’d be prepared to fade them against a tougher team (think Miami). But let’s remember this is still the 76ers, who need to prove to me that they know how to close a series as well. I’m looking at Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid and James Harden. Tip of the cap to them if they get over the hump at home in Game 6.

Al Horford ALT Points 10+ (+145) — 1-unit

As for how I will back the Celtics, I’ll look to a couple of the veterans that I do trust to show up in a game like this. Horford is going to eat his words a bit after the “elite shooter” term that’s been throw around in this series. After backing it up in Game 3 by going 5-of-7 from downtown, he’s just 2-for-14 in the games since, including 0-for-7 at home in Game 5. I think Horford steps up here in a must-win game, and his point prop sits at a nice discount — 7.5 with -140 to the over. We’ll play it closer to where it normally is for some good plus money to get into double digits. Horford has scored in double digits three times in the series, including both games in Philly (and all four trips to Philly if you include the regular season).

Malcolm Brogdon OVER 21.5 PTS/REB/AST (-130) — 1-unit

Brogdon needs some extra run off the bench, and I’m hoping Joe Mazzulla is able to identify that. Derrick White hasn’t been great in this series, and Marcus Smart has been on the floor to take (and miss) some big shots. I could see Brogdon (who’s the better shooter) sliding into some more of those spots in a game like this. Even if Brogdon doesn’t earn any extra run, he’s still been going over his props at a good rate — including well over his P/R/A prop in the first four games of the series. Like Horford, Brogdon struggled in Game 5, and now we’ll take the discount in a big spot.

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

I’ve gone back and forth of how I would play this game, which likely means sitting it out. I thought Denver would be able to split the games in Phoenix, leaving it in position to close out in five games at home. That wasn’t the case.

The Suns were able to get monster performances from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant in both home games, and just enough from the role players to squeak by. I’m skeptical that can continue, but this is also a Nuggets squad that just wasn’t that good on the road. Denver is 37-4 at home when Nikola Jokic plays, and they know they have that game in their back pocket. That’s what ultimately will keep me off playing the Nuggets for the game.

In desperation spots like this, I like to look to the home team on the first half line. So maybe a small play there for me if I do go Suns, rather than the full game. Just a lot to as of Book and KD, and we can’t count of the role players for a full game.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.