MLB Picks for May 15: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

10 games are on the main schedule Monday night, starting at 7:07 p.m. ET. We’re going to go over a few bets I like that you can place on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.

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Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Pick: Twins moneyline first five innings -110

The Twins offense may have finally woken up over the weekend. After dragging ass for most of the season, the broke out for 27 runs in the final TWO games of the series against the Cubs. It’s been a long time coming for an offense that has the talent but simply weren’t performing. They have a great opportunity to continue their recent offensive outburst in a matchup against Dodgers stater Noah Syndergaard. With seven starts under his belt, he has a 6.12 ERA with a 4.79 xERA and a 4.75 FIP. His strikeouts are down (5.8 K/9), ground ball are down 38.4%) and line drives are way up (26%). Both sides the of the plate have been hitting him hard, as he owns a .331 wOBA against righties and a .383 wOBA against lefties.

For the Twins, Pablo Lopez will be taking the mound. After two poor starts to end April, Lopez has bounced back nicely against the White Sox and Padres. Through 13.1 innings, he’s allowed just three runs on eight hits with 16 strikeouts. Lopez has been better as the game goes on, as he owns a .319 wOBA and a 3.47 FIP the first time through the order and a .256 wOBA with a 2.49 FIP the second time through. If this offense continues to roll, they should end the fifth with the lead.

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox

The Pick: Game total under 10 runs -115

I’m a bit puzzled by this total. Only two games have a total in double-digits, this game and the Reds-Rockies game at Coors Field. Sure, the Red Sox have been the best team at hitting the over on their game total, going 26-13-2 (66.7%), and doing so by an average of 1.8 runs. However, they’re due to face George Kirby, who has been one of the Mariners best starters. He has a 2.62 ERA with a 3.16 xERA and a 2.65 FIP. Unless you’re making contact, you’re not getting on base against Kirby. He very rarely issues walks, as he’s only given up three through 44.2 innings. Through 174.2 innings since being called up, he’s only allowed 25 walks. The Mariners only have one of the best bullpens in the league with a combined 2.81 ERA.

For the Red Sox, they’ll be starting Tanner Houck. His numbers on the surface don’t look great with a 5.26 ERA but his 3.64 xERA and a 4.04 FIP tell a different story. The Mariners offense hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut either, especially lately. They’re striking out a ton with a 26% K% and are slashing just .221/.293/.327. This simply doesn’t feel like a high scoring game, especially when you consider it has the second-highest total on the slate.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

The Pick: First five inning game total over 4 runs -115

This has a lot to do with the struggles of Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals. He’s been brutal on the mound and it’s warranted. His 6.18 ERA is aligned with his xERA of 6.07 and a 5.66 FIP. His command has been awful as well, posting a BB/9 of 6.1. Once he puts men on, Flaherty has been falling apart. He has a .418 wOBA with men on base and a .484 wOBA with men in scoring position. Lefties have also been a huge issue for him, which is something the Brewers will have plenty of in their lineup. Against righties, they usually have five lefties through the first seven hitters in their lineup, including the suddenly hot Christian Yelich.

The X factor on this total is Freddy Peralta. He’s been great for the Brewers and not normally someone I would target against for totals. But, this Cardinals offense is rolling right now. They scored 21 runs in their three game series against the Red Sox and over the past week are now averaging 5.6 runs. I’m banking the majority of the runs through the first five innings will come from the Brewers and anything from the Cardinals would be a bonus. All in all, four runs is a total worth taking the over on.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.