We were a perfect 5-0 last week on article plays, bringing our record to 22-14 for the season and putting us up a solid 8.5 units. Will I stay red-hot on tonight’s microscopic two-game MLB slate or will everything come crashing down? Only time will tell. It’s all very dramatic.
Let’s dive in.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (+100)
Jose Berrios has pitched pretty well in his last in last six starts and, for the season as a whole, he’s been at his best in Toronto, where he sports a 1.53 ERA and a 2.68 FIP. He’s also been experimenting with his pitch-mix in 2023, even recently beginning to throw some right-on-right change-ups. Still, at the end of the day, Berrios will go as far as his breaking pitches take him. His slurve is his best offering and it is its most effective against RHBs. That’s the main reason why righties have managed just a .297 slugging percentage off the former All-Star. Lefties are a different story. They’re hitting .300 with a .522 slugging.
It’s that handedness disparity where the value lies in the prop market. I’d suggest attacking with the left-handed bats in the Yankees’ lineup — particularly Rizzo. The 33-year-old is having a phenomenal season, registering a 152 wRC+ across his first 187 plate appearances, which includes a notable .230 ISO when facing RHPs. The history between these two veterans is also worth factoring in. The duo have met several times in recent years in divisional play, with Rizzo having gained the upper hand. The first baseman is 9-for-22 off Berrios with an eye-popping 1.186 OPS. Needless to say, he sees him well.
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+120)
Not to sound too much like an old man yelling at a cloud, but I miss the days when teams were slow to designate their terrible, washed pitchers. This season alone we’ve already had to say goodbye to automatic run machines like Jose Urena, Luis Cessa and Madison Bumgarner. That’s right. The front offices of the Reds and Rockies are even coherent enough to make these decisions. That’s a bad sign for gas cans everywhere. I bring this up only to remind people to truly take advantage of this final Wainwright season, particularly with no Yadier Molina behind the plate.
Wainwright has looked cooked since Spring Training. His fastball velocity is career-low 87.3 mph. He surrendered nine earned runs over 13.0 innings in his rehab starts in Double-A and Triple-A. He’s pitched to a 7.20 ERA and a 5.49 xERA since debuting at the MLB level earlier this month. There’s just nothing to like about the 41-year-old is bringing to the table. In both starts Wainwright has made, he’s allowed at least seven opponent hits. It’s sort of a perfect storm. He’s not walking anyone, he’s not striking out anyone — his zone contact rate is 93.0% — so there’s simply been an abundance of batted ball events. With the Dodgers sitting tops in the NL in wOBA versus RHPs (.343), I’d expect hits to appear in bunches once again on Thursday evening.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.