We’re through the first full month of the MLB season, with most teams playing around 30 games. There have been some major surprises to start the year — break up the Pittsburgh Pirates! — but there is still plenty of time for things to change.
We have another massive slate on Tuesday, with all 30 teams scheduled to take the field. That includes a 12-game main slate on DraftKings starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins:
The Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-135)
The Braves have a date with Sandy Alcantara on Tuesday, and facing Alcantara is never fun. Do you know what’s even less fun? Facing Alcantara after playing 18 innings on Monday and then flying down to Miami. New York to Miami certainly isn’t the worst flight you have to make in the MLB, but overall, Monday was a really long day for the Braves.
Their bullpen wasn’t overly busy in relief of Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton in the doubleheader, but they did throw 6 2/3 innings. The team used six different relievers, with four of them throwing at least 17 pitches. Their bullpen hasn’t been a strength to start the year, ranking 18th in the league with a 4.07 ERA, and at least a few of their top arms may be unavailable in this spot.
Facing Alcantara at anything less than full strength is a very tough ask. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was in last year’s Cy Young winning campaign, but most of his struggles came in one start against the Phillies. He was able to limit a potent Braves’ offense to two runs across 5 2/3 innings in his last start, exiting the game with a 4-2 lead. The Marlins bullpen would ultimately blow it, but the Braves bullpen pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings in relief. They may not have that luxury in the rematch.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Pick: Phillies Moneyline (+135)
The Dodgers are riding a season-high four-game win streak after sweeping the Cardinals over the weekend and taking Game 1 of their series vs. the Phillies on Monday. They lit up Taijuan Walker for 13 runs in that contest, bringing them to 17-13 on the year. The Dodgers are now back perched atop the NL West, a position they have become quite accustomed to over the past decade.
Still, there are reasons for concern with this year’s version of the Dodgers. One of the biggest is their pitching staff. They don’t have the same depth that they’ve had in previous years, and some of their starters have seen some regression.
That includes Tuesday’s starter, Julio Urias. He’s pitched to a 4.41 ERA through his first six starts, which is nearly 2.5 runs higher than his mark from last year. His SIERA suggests there’s some room for improvement, it’s clear that his success last year was a bit of an outlier.
The Phillies’ offense will also get a huge boost on Tuesday with the return of Bryce Harper. He’ll be on the wrong side of his splits vs. Urias, but Harper is still very capable of hitting left-handed pitchers. He owns a 121 wRC+ vs. southpaws for his career, and he’ll give the Phillies’ lineup some much-needed depth.
The Phillies already have plenty of right-handed hitters in their lineup – Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto to name a few – so adding Harper to Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh from the left side gives them a very well-balanced lineup. I don’t expect the Phillies to struggle all season, so this is a nice buy-low opportunity.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees:
The Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+145)
The Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound on Tuesday, and Cole has been filthy to start the year. He’s pitched to a 1.11 ERA, and he’s yet to allow a single homer. He’s likely due for a bit of regression, but his 2.11 FIP and 2.77 xERA are still elite marks.
That said, unless Cole suddenly turned into Shohei Ohtani, he’s not going to help the Yankees’ offense. They couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat at the moment. Without Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, the Bronx Bombers all of a sudden have virtually no power in their lineup. They’ve scored two runs or fewer in four straight games, losing all four contests.
Last night’s loss to the Guardians was a perfect encapsulation of their season so far. They got an amazing start from Domingo German, who held the Guardians off the scoreboard through the first eight innings. However, German and the bullpen got just two runs of support, and they ultimately surrendered the lead in the ninth inning.
Even with Cole on the mound on Tuesday, it’s very tough to win if you can’t score runs. If the Guardians can scratch a few across the plate against Cole or the bullpen, that could be enough.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.