MLB Picks for May 22: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

12 games are on the schedule Monday night, starting at 6:10 p.m. ET. We’re going to go over a few bets I like that you can place on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.

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Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pick: Rangers team total over 4.5 runs -120

Taking the over on the Rangers team total has been a cash cow. They enter this game averaging a ridiculous 6.4 runs per game, the highest in the league. They’ve gone over 4.5 runs in five straight games, averaging 8.6 per game over that span. Now they’ll go up against the Pirates, who allow an average of 4.8 runs per game in Pittsburgh.

Taking the mound for the Pirates will be Luis Oritz. This will only be the third start of the season for him but he hasn’t gotten off to a good start. Facing two light hitting offenses in the Tigers and Rockies, Ortiz allowed nine runs (five earned) on 14 hits with five walks and four strikeouts. His lack of command could really come back to bite him in this game. With men on base, the Rangers are hitting .309 with a .382 wOBA and a 145 wRC+. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rangers make if six straight games going over 4.5 runs.

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics

The Pick: Mariners team total over 2.5 runs through first five innings -125

This essentially is a way to play Kyle Muller earned runs allowed but at a discount. He very rarely goes over five innings of work. If you were to play the earned run prop, it’s currently at -145. Muller has made nine starts and has gone at least 5.1 innings in only two of them. When he’s out of the game pitching less than 5.1 innings, he’s allowed at least three runs in five of his nine starts. Muller has also been completely picked apart on the road, where he sports a 10.31 ERA with a .436 wOBA, a 7.00 FIP and a 1.9 HR/9.

Muller also gets worse the deeper into games he goes (which is never that deep). He’s at his “best” the first time through the order with a 4.26 ERA and a .339 wOBA. It falls off dramatically after that with a 5.40 ERA and a .385 wOBA the second time through. On the real rare occasion he makes it a third time through, his ERA is 24.16, having allowed 17 runs on 21 hits in 6.1 innings. Going over 2.5 runs with only a line of -125 feels like a situation I don’t want to miss out on.

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Pick: Matt Olson over 1.5 bases +105

With the way he’s been swinging the bat lately, over 1.5 bases for Olson at +105 caught my attention. Olson has gone over this number in four of his last five games, while also hitting a double in three straight (+330 to hit one tonight). A lot of his power has come at home, where he’s hit six of his 10 doubles and six of his 13 home runs.

The Dodgers will be starting rookie Gavin Stone, who’ll be making only his second start. Stone went through the Dodgers minor league system quickly despite displaying some shaky command. Through 35.2 innings at Triple-A, he had a 4.7 BB/9. I bring this up because Olson has been at his best when starting ahead of the count after 1-0. Olson has a .403 wOBA and a .306 ISO after starting ahead in the count. I like taking the prop at plus money tonight and expect this will move before the game starts.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.