As per usual, it’s a small MLB slate on Thursday night, with just five games getting started past 7:00 p.m. ET. I’m what we call a betting vampire, I live for primetime, so those are the contests I’ll be focusing on below. I’d keep reading, too. We’re 25-16 on article plays for the season, which also puts us up 9.9 units. Not bad.
Let’s dive in.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600) — 0.5 units
Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+750) — 0.5 units
Let’s try something new in this space. If I’m being completely honest, I tend to steer clear of home run props, as they’re long shot bets and I like to inflate my overall record — can you blame me? However, even I can’t deny that this is a really good spot to take a chance with some of the Orioles’ best left-handed hitters. Clarke Schmidt has been highly susceptible to the long ball in 2023, particularly when pitching in Yankee Stadium. Schmidt is surrendering a robust 1.95 opponent home runs per nine at home, a figure that is somehow dwarfed by the 2.29 home runs per nine he’s allowing specifically to left-handed batters. In other terms, the 58 LHBs the RHP has faced in New York have combined for a whopping .640 slugging percentage.
Schmidt isn’t the only one with weighted splits, though. Rutschman has been easily the most dangerous version of himself from the left-side of the plate throughout his brief career, hitting 18 of his 20 long balls as a lefty. Rutschman’s ISO against RHPs is .214, while that number drops to a microscopic .094 versus southpaws. Unsurprisingly, Mullins has similar tendencies. I mean, we’re talking about someone who prefers to bat from the left-side so much, he straight up stopped being a switch-hitter. Mullins owns a .236 ISO and a 144 wRC+ when opposed by right-handed pitchers in 2023.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Logan Gilbert to Record a Win (+130)
I don’t want to oversimplify this market, there’s obviously reasons for the discrepancy, but would you rather bet the Mariners on the moneyline at -250 or Gilbert to get a win at plus-money? Seems pretty simple to me. To be fair, Gilbert has only technically won two of his nine starts in 2023, but that is certainly not a reflection on the man himself. The RHP has been dominant so far this season, pitching to a 2.68 FIP and a 6.3 K/BB ratio that is the fourth-best mark among qualified pitchers. On top of that, protecting any prospective Gilbert lead is a Seattle bullpen that owns the lowest FIP in all of baseball (2.98).
Then there’s the matchup: The real reason to get excited about this prop. The Athletics have won just 10 of their 51 games. Specifically against the Mariners, the team is 0-6 to this point in their schedule. We aren’t talking about a ton of late, heartbreaking losses, either. More often than not, Oakland is trailing early, as evidenced by its 9-34-8 first-five record in 2023. The Athletics have a MLB-low .255 wOBA across the past two weeks. They simply struggle to put runs on the board, especially when facing a dominant RHP. Look for Seattle to grab an early lead and for Gilbert to ride that to his third win of the year.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.