As per usual, it’s a small MLB slate on Thursday night, with just five games getting started past 7:00 p.m. ET. I’m what we call a betting vampire, I live for primetime, so those are the contests I’ll be focusing on below. I’d keep reading, too. We’re 25-16 on article plays for the season, which also puts us up 9.9 units. Not bad.
Let’s dive in.
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24416202/sportsbook.jpg)
Bet at the top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at the top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600) — 0.5 units
Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+750) — 0.5 units
Let’s try something new in this space. If I’m being completely honest, I tend to steer clear of home run props, as they’re long shot bets and I like to inflate my overall record — can you blame me? However, even I can’t deny that this is a really good spot to take a chance with some of the Orioles’ best left-handed hitters. Clarke Schmidt has been highly susceptible to the long ball in 2023, particularly when pitching in Yankee Stadium. Schmidt is surrendering a robust 1.95 opponent home runs per nine at home, a figure that is somehow dwarfed by the 2.29 home runs per nine he’s allowing specifically to left-handed batters. In other terms, the 58 LHBs the RHP has faced in New York have combined for a whopping .640 slugging percentage.
Schmidt isn’t the only one with weighted splits, though. Rutschman has been easily the most dangerous version of himself from the left-side of the plate throughout his brief career, hitting 18 of his 20 long balls as a lefty. Rutschman’s ISO against RHPs is .214, while that number drops to a microscopic .094 versus southpaws. Unsurprisingly, Mullins has similar tendencies. I mean, we’re talking about someone who prefers to bat from the left-side so much, he straight up stopped being a switch-hitter. Mullins owns a .236 ISO and a 144 wRC+ when opposed by right-handed pitchers in 2023.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Logan Gilbert to Record a Win (+130)
I don’t want to oversimplify this market, there’s obviously reasons for the discrepancy, but would you rather bet the Mariners on the moneyline at -250 or Gilbert to get a win at plus-money? Seems pretty simple to me. To be fair, Gilbert has only technically won two of his nine starts in 2023, but that is certainly not a reflection on the man himself. The RHP has been dominant so far this season, pitching to a 2.68 FIP and a 6.3 K/BB ratio that is the fourth-best mark among qualified pitchers. On top of that, protecting any prospective Gilbert lead is a Seattle bullpen that owns the lowest FIP in all of baseball (2.98).
Then there’s the matchup: The real reason to get excited about this prop. The Athletics have won just 10 of their 51 games. Specifically against the Mariners, the team is 0-6 to this point in their schedule. We aren’t talking about a ton of late, heartbreaking losses, either. More often than not, Oakland is trailing early, as evidenced by its 9-34-8 first-five record in 2023. The Athletics have a MLB-low .255 wOBA across the past two weeks. They simply struggle to put runs on the board, especially when facing a dominant RHP. Look for Seattle to grab an early lead and for Gilbert to ride that to his third win of the year.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.