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NBA Best Bets: NBA Picks and Betting Trends on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 3

Julian Edlow gives his best NBA bets and betting trends on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Just one game in the NBA on Wednesday’s betting card, with a massive Game 2 in Boston between the 76ers and Celtics. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Any added plays will be posted to Twitter as I play them.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Win Game 2/Series Double Result: Celtics (-105) — 2-units

I bet this in Game 1 and took my medicine on a tough loss. I’m back on it for Game 2, because I still feel the Celtics are the side in this series, with or without Joel Embiid on the floor.

The Celtics have a problem with squandering late leads at home, but have consistently bounced back with convincing performances the following game. In general off a playoff loss, the Celtics have been excellent the last two postseasons — going 9-2 the following game. Both of those losses came in the NBA Finals to the Warriors, along with one of the wins, leaving the Celts a perfect 8-0 off a playoff loss in the postseason in an Eastern Conference series.

Outside of the recent history of this team specifically, recent NBA history also tells us the Celtics should respond in this game. The last 14 teams to lose a game as a double digit favorite in the postseason have gone 13-1 the following game. The last 14 teams to go down 1-0 in a series with a Game 1 home loss have gone a perfect 14-0 in Game 2.

I’ll put my faith right back in this team to grab a must-win game at home, and then win the series. The Celtics are 27-17 on the road so far this season (including postseason), and have a win in Philly.

Celtics/Warriors ML Parlay (-114) — 1-unit

Gave my analysis on the Celtics above, and the Warriors aren’t all that different. They fit into the Game 2 bounce-back off a Game 1 home loss, which hopefully sits 15-0 entering Thursday night.

Anthony Davis had a monster Game 1, and should be a focal point of Golden State’s defense in Game 2. Stephen Curry had a poor shooting night and should be better in Game 2. Adjustments should favor the Warriors here, who can’t afford to go into an 0-2 hole in this series on their home court.

Joel Embiid UNDER 24.5 Points (+105) (if he plays)

Shams Charania is reporting that Embiid will return for Game 2 in Boston. If that’s the case, I’ll almost certainly play an under on his props. The knee injury Embiid suffered generally requires at least four weeks to recover. If he plays on Wednesday, it’ll be 13 days since he went down in Brooklyn, causing him to miss the next two games. It’s possible Embiid could see his minutes limited, but even if he doesn’t, I expect him to be very restricted on the floor. We’re talking about the MVP, who averaged over 33 points per game this season with a player prop sitting at 24.5 for a massive playoff game. That right there tells you what oddsmakers think about Embiid’s ability to be himself at the moment.

Again, I’m not convinced Embiid will actually suit up. When given the chance to confirm Charania’s report at his press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Embiid said it would be “day-by-day,” and that he still needed the green light from doctors. He mentioned “it’s a possibility,” when asked if he’d play or not. No reason for Philly to tip its hand, so I’m sure there’s some gamesmanship here. But don’t think we have any confirmation he will in fact play.

Jaylen Brown 1Q Points OVER 6.5 Points (-105)

Brown had a really weird stat line in Game 1. He went off in the first quarter, scoring 14 points on 6-of-7 shooting, but attempted just three more shots the rest of the game. In the end, he shot 8-for-10 from the field, leaving many wondering why he wasn’t more aggressive for his shot. I think the Celtics will make a point to get Brown more involved early in his one, and keep him involved. I like the over to his 24.5 point-prop, but would probably play this as a first quarter prop.

Aside from the 14 points in Game 1, Brown is averaging 7.1 points in the first quarter, playing over nine minutes. The Celtics generally sit Jayson Tatum early, and give Brown more of the first quarter workload. JB played all 12 minutes of the first frame on Monday. Between his rotation minutes and the game plan, we should see Brown involved early.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.