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MLB Picks for May 4: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB betting card.

Controversy! Well, not really, but what a lede, right? I went 1-1 on my article plays last Friday, as my Braves team total prop was voided on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Why? The game was called after five innings due to inclement weather. Atlanta was up 4-0. They just needed one more run to hit the over. C’est la vie.

We’re 16-10 for the season as a whole and up 6.0 units. Let’s dig into this afternoon-heavy slate.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

White Sox ML (+115)

Betting on the White Sox to win? I know. It’s not exactly the best strategy in the world. Still, if there’s been one lone bright spot for the team from Chicago’s southside, it’s been Lucas Giolito. Since a terrible outing in Pittsburgh back on April 7, the right-hander has been quite good, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 3.37 FIP across 25.2 innings of work. That stretch also includes a sterling 5.0% walk rate, which has helped Giolito to maintain a 0.90 WHIP. Basically, after a very rough 2022 campaign, it seems like Giolito is back in the groove.

Conversely, Pablo Lopez has been underwhelming as of late. It’s not just that the veteran has surrendered 11 earned runs in his last two outings, it’s that those two outings happened to be against the lowly Royals and Nationals. Lopez did have an incredible start versus this same White Sox squad back on April 11 — racking up 10 strikeouts over 7.2 frames — but that was a lineup without both Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez. Chicago’s finally healthy. That won’t necessarily translate into victories, but it certainly gives the team a better chance.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Under 9.5 (-120)

The first three games of this series have hit the over pretty easily, but we’re zigging from the trend. Mostly, I’m leaning towards the under due to the presence of one person: Kevin Gausman. The right-hander has started the season red-hot, with a 2.33 ERA and a 2.38 FIP over 38.2 innings. Gausman’s 35.1% strikeout rate is a top-five mark in baseball among qualified pitchers. Heck, the 32-year-old hasn’t allowed an earned run in four of his six outings in 2023 — including his last two games, where Gausman’s registered 14.0 scoreless frames. To cut right to chase, he’s really, really good.

Brayan Bello is not as good, yet that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have his strengths. Consider for a moment that the RHP posted a 2.94 FIP across 57.1 innings in his rookie campaign in 2022. Yes, he’s currently in possession of a 6.57 ERA in 2023, but most of that is due to one start against the Angels. It’s also worth noting that start was on Patriots’ Day at 11:00 a.m. ET, so I think we can cut the 23-year-old a little slack. Bello looked far more like himself in his last appearance versus the Guardians, conceding only one run over five frames. Bello can do his part to keep this contest low-scoring.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.