NBA Best Bets: NBA Picks and Betting Trends on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 8

Monday is a tough NBA card, with the Heat and Lakers both hosting Game 4’s with 2-1 series leads in hand. I’m not sure I’ll wind up with any bets on this card, but there are some plays I lean strongly towards. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Any added plays will be posted to Twitter as I play them.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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New York Knicks at Miami Heat

Heat -4.5 (-105)

The Heat have managed to completely turn around whatever they were in the regular season, now maintaining an efficient offense in the postseason, even without Tyler Herro. They also seem to just have the Knicks’ number. Miami has dominated the majority of this series, with the Knicks managing just enough for a late comeback in a must-win Game 2 at home. Otherwise this has been all Heat, including a blowout win in Game 3 at home.

This should be a Knicks bounce-back spot, which is why I haven’t bet the game yet. The trends on the season point to the Knicks as well — now 19-13-1 ATS as a road underdog, while the Heat are 13-24-2 ATS as home favorites.

But if you’ve watched the series, those trends go right out the window. Miami has been dominant on both ends. At home with a chance to take full control of the series, I trust this veteran Miami team that’s played through these situations over the Knicks. Heat or pass here.

Double-Double: Julius Randle (+125)

Since returning from his Game 1 absence, Randle has finished with double-doubles in both games, despite some struggles shooting from the field. Randle’s rebounding prop has been smashed to the over, with the juice now -160 for O8.5. If the market is that confident in nine rebounds, why not get an 85-cent difference in juice here for him to reach 10 boards? Of course, we need to get the points as well, but Randle should be in line for a bounce-back from a 4-for-15 shooting game, which he still managed to score double figures. Randle has pulled down 12 and 14 rebounds in his games so far this series. In games that have been rock fights, look for that trend to continue.

Double-Double: Julius Randle (+125)

Since returning from his Game 1 absence, Randle has finished with double-doubles in both games, despite some struggles shooting from the field. Randle’s rebounding prop has been smashed to the over, with the juice now -160 for O8.5. If the market is that confident in nine rebounds, why not get an 85-cent difference in juice here for him to reach 10 boards? Of course, we need to get the points as well, but Randle should be in line for a bounce-back from a 4-for-15 shooting game, which he still managed to score double figures. Randle has pulled down 12 and 14 rebounds in his games so far this series. In games that have been rock fights, look for that trend to continue.

Alternate Points: Gabe Vincent 15+ (+145)

The combination of Herro and Victor Oladipo being out of Miami’s rotation has led to more opportunities during the postseason, many of which land on Vincent. He’s coming off a poor shooting game in Game 3, scoring just five points on 1-of-8 shooting. It was his third poor shooting game of the postseason, each of which he’s scored 10 or fewer points. So I’m passing on his O12.5 standard point prop, and getting a better price to score 15 or more.

Vincent has scored 15 or more points in all five of his other postseason outings, averaging 18.8 in those games. Vincent only played 30 minutes on Saturday, in part due to the blowout (it also clearly wasn’t his game). But he’d been particularly hot in the two previous games of the series, and even going back to Game 5 against Milwaukee. In those last three playoff games, Vincent attempted at least 16 shots per game, and at least 12 per game from downtown! That’s a ton of volume for a really good shooter. He scored over 20 points in each of those games.

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

In theory this would be a Warriors spot, but I can’t trust this team on the road. Yes, they got two big wins in Sacramento, but Saturday night was another blowout, and the Dubs are now just 14-32 ATS on the road this season. This feels like a back-and-forth seven game series, and the officiating crew might also suggest some favor towards Golden State. If anything, this could be a game to get invested in live after we watch some possessions.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.