NBA Best Bets: NBA Picks and Betting Trends on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 9

Tuesday’s NBA card features a couple of crucial Game 5’s, with both Boston and Denver hosting 2-2 series’. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Any added plays will be posted to Twitter as I play them.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Celtics/Warriors ML Parlay (-119) — 1.5-units

Celtics/Nuggets ML Parlay (-103) — 1.5-units

I’ll write up the Celtics leg of the parlays here, which I’m using in both parlays, and then you can find analysis on Denver and Golden State in their own write ups. If you wanted to go with a Nuggets/Warriors parlay, I don’t blame you. If you want to lay the points with any of these Game 5 favorites (besides the Knicks), I don’t blame you. I think all three teams are in strong spots, but this is how I’ll be playing the games.

Had the Celtics completed their Game 4 comeback in Philly, I was ready to layoff this team in Game 5. They’ve really struggled closing out with big leads, particularly at home. With the series 2-2, this is a completely different spot for Boston. I think the C’s can take a lot of what they did in the second half of Game 4 and translate that to Game 5, while also eliminating some of their crucial mistakes.

Al Horford is playing Joel Embiid about as tough as you can right now, and the key for Boston seems to be limiting James Harden (didn’t think I’d be typing that). The two games Philly won were Game 1, when Marcus Smart got lit up by Harden, and then Game 4 when Jaylen Brown was in foul trouble (after locking him down in Games 2 and 3). I expect another strong defensive effort from Brown on Harden in Game 5 to be the key to Boston taking a 3-2 series lead.

Jaylen Brown 1Q Points OVER 7.5 (+100) — 1-unit

Brown’s been getting out to rapid starts this series, and at home in the postseason. He’s gone for 12 or more points in the first quarter in three of the four games in this series, including 12 in just seven minutes in Game 4 (due to the foul trouble).

Despite these quick starts, Brown has been disappearing down the stretch of games. I think that narrative is what’s been helping fuel these strong first quarters, and we’re in that spot yet again following Game 4.

Brown has also been tremendous at home to begin games, even dating back to Game 5 against Atlanta. Brown has had 11 or more first quarter points in his last three home games, and averaged 13.5 first quarter points in the games in Boston so far in this series.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

Denver played pretty well in Phoenix, but just fell short to some insane offense from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. Booker and KD needed a little bit of help from their role players at home, and it was enough to get by.

I expect things to change in Denver. Booker just has to cool down from this hot streak he’s on, at one point connecting on 32 of his last 40 field goals in the series. Booker and Durant shot well and did a lot of the heavy lifting in Games 1 and 2, but came up well short (losing both by double digits) due to the rest of the roster not stepping up. With Chris Paul still out, I expect the lack of depth to finally show up here on the road.

Terrific bounce-back spot here for the Nuggets at home off consecutive losses. The Suns will have no answer for Nikola Jokic, and the rest of the well-rounded roster should outplay Phoenix. Remember, this Nuggets squad is 36-4 at home this season when Joker plays.

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (Wednesday)

The Warriors are also in a strong bounce-back spot, returning home with their season on the line. The series had been following the zig-zag through three games, but despite a strong effort from the Dubs in Game 4, they just couldn’t close on the road.

That’s leaves them in an even stronger spot in Game 5, immediately being bet from 5.5 to 6.5-point favorites. Look for the Warriors to be fully locked in, and playing at home to make a big difference for them. The Lakers were in this same spot against the Grizzlies, and got beat pretty good in a Game 5 in Memphis. Having their Game 6 in their back pocket, versus a Warriors mentality of needing this game to stay alive is going to be apparent at times during this game.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.