Tuesday offers up another sizable MLB slate, with all 30 teams set to take the field. That includes five matchups starting before 7 p.m. ET, followed by a 10-game main slate.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
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New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds:
The Pick: Reds ML (+165)
Full disclosure: I am a Mets fan. I entered the year with big expectations, and like always, the Mets have been nothing but a disappointment. The team has a million problems, but the biggest one has been their starting pitching. They rank 24th in starter ERA, checking in at a dismal 5.34. Only the Rockies and Reds have been worse in the National League.
Max Scherzer will get the ball for the Mets on Tuesday, and he has been the biggest disappointment in the Mets’ staff. He’s pitched to a 5.56 ERA, and his 5.26 xERA and 6.35 FIP suggest he hasn’t exactly been unlucky. His strikeouts are down, his walks and homers are up, and he ranks in the eighth percentile in barrel percentage.
Scherzer was bludgeoned by the Tigers in his last start, who have been one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handers over the past two years. They torched him for six earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings, which is terrifying for his prospects moving forward.
The Reds seem like a great matchup for the Mets to bounce back, but the Mets have been trounced by inferior competition of late. They lost two of three at home vs. the Nationals, two of three at home vs. the Rockies and were swept on the road by the Tigers. If those teams can get the better of the Mets, why can’t the Reds? Until the Mets start playing better baseball, taking any large underdog against them is a viable strategy.
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles:
The Pick: Orioles ML (+115)
The Grayson Rodriguez experience has been an interesting one so far. The top pitching prospect has dazzled at times, but he’s also given up plenty of hard contact. He ranks in the 20th percentile in average exit velocity and 12th percentile in hard-hit rate, so opposing batters have done damage when they’ve put the ball in play. That doesn’t bode well for his prospects vs. the Rays, who have been the best offense in baseball to start the year. They’ve feasted on right-handers, posting a league-high 138 wRC+.
Still, I remain bullish on Rodriguez. There’s a reason he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he posted an elite 12.53 K/9 and 2.20 ERA in Triple-A last season. His strikeout stuff has translated to the majors – he’s struck out 37 batters in 28 innings — but he’s been unlucky on balls in play. His .371 BABIP is well above what most of the projection systems expected, while 20.8% of his fly balls allowed have turned into homers. He should be able to improve in both departments moving forward, and his ERA should trend closer to his 3.35 xFIP.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians:
The Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-115)
Tuesday’s matchup between the Tigers and Guardians features two of the feeblest offenses in baseball. The Tigers’ struggles against right-handed pitchers have been well-documented over the past two years, and they’re just 26th in wRC+ in that split this season. They’re also 26th in ISO vs. right-handers, and they’ve averaged the third-fewest runs per game.
They’ll face Shane Bieber on Tuesday, and while Bieber hasn’t been the same dominant force that he was in the past, he’s still capable of keeping runs off the board. He owns a 2.96 ERA through seven starts this season, and he had a 2.88 ERA in 2022. He’s yet to face the Tigers this season, but he held them to two earned runs or fewer in three of four matchups last year.
As bad as the Tigers’ offense is, the Guardians might be worse. They rank dead-last in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they’re just 29th in ISO. They’re also averaging the second-fewest runs per game, with only the Marlins averaging less.
Their matchup against Michael Lorenzen isn’t quite as imposing, but they’re capable of making any pitcher look like Pedro Martinez. Lorenzen has also shined in two of his past three outings, limiting the Mets and Orioles to just one run over 12 innings.
Ultimately, it’s hard to score in 2023 if you can’t hit the ball over the fence, and neither of these teams has much pop. I’m happy to take the under in this spot.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.